Ugu

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Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Ugu District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Ugu District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation201812,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1tXZlAFIUntb6ktPXL9NzO-1Y_SReKBHK2SFkLPrIMis/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Ugu District Municipality CC Summary Report201712,605WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0YnBBeVJwaHp5QUU&resourcekey=0-MjMWNO75sQ-30kGsRWRpzg&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Ugu Reviewed Draft Climate Change Strategy20175,920PDF<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrTzZlWlZQbTNKemdQaUZnOF95MmpqWGowTXVR&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Ugu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Ugu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Ugu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Ugu (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Ugu using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
Human HealthIncreased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis)YesIt is projected that Ugu DM will experience an increase in waterborne diseases as a result of increased temperatures.HighCholera is identified as a priority risk for Ugu DM in the Disaster Management Sector PlanLowUnsure of capacity to cope with waterborne and communicable diseases.
Implementation of HHES and reporting according to the time frames.
Implementation of Waste Management Plan by local municipalities.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased isolation of rural communitiesYesThe rural areas have poorer access to services and infrastructure than their urban counterparts. There is a gradual shift in the location of rural settlements from being dispersed to locating along transport access roads.High86% of the District's population live in rural areasLowDisaster Management Sector Plan in place with an established District Disaster Management Forum, however based on the climate change strategy the rural areas are the least resilient in terms of adapting to changes in climate.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesLarge numbers of people, especially the youth, are moving from the rural areas to the urban areas within the District and to other metros. This migration has also led to the increase in informal dwellings in the urban areas.HighLimited job opportunities and limited development in rural areasLowWith large numbers of people moving to the urban centres, there has been increased pressure on infrastructure in these nodes. There is also a need for a rural development strategy in the rural areas.
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYesUgu's CC Plan states that the quality of water in rivers systems is predicted to decrease in the District due to the reduced flows of water. This will negatively affect the rivers and wetland ecosystems.HighGreen drop score of 20.10%LowThe water and sanitation master plan is currently being reviewed. There is a large backlog of rural sanitation provision which requires funds.
Emalangeni and Umdoni use the bucket system.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Ugu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Ugu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Ugu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Ugu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References