Step 1: Indicators
The first step in a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is to develop a set of indicators. Indicators are a list of potential impacts that may take place in your area as a result of climate change. The video below explains the process of developing a list of indicators used in this toolkit.
A draft list of climate change indicators have been developed using the Long Term Adaptation Scenario Reports. The indicators have been grouped into sectors and are listed below. The purpose of this list of indicators is to provide a starting point for the Vulnerability Assessment. Please add, subtract and edit the indicators as you see fit for your particular municipality.
No | Sector | Indicator Title | Indicator Description |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Areas towards the west of RSA are likely to become less suitable for grain production. |
2 | Agriculture | Change in Sorghum production | Sorghum yields are projected to increase in parts of western KZN, inland areas of the Eastern Cape and the eastern Free State, with some areas in the north registering losses compared with present climatic conditions. |
3 | Agriculture | Change in Soya Bean Production | Areas in the east of RSA lost to potential production, with an expansion of suitable areas inland towards the central/west or RSA. |
4 | Agriculture | Change in Sugarcane Production | Increase in <10% in many parts of the present cane growing areas, but by up to 30% in new growth areas further inland. |
5 | Agriculture | Change in viticulture (grapes) production | Areas suitable for viticulture could be substantially reduced or shift to higher altitudes and currently cooler, more southerly locations. |
6 | Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Projected reduction of the area suitable for fruit production (e.g. 28% reduction in apple and pears) by as early as 2020. |
7 | Agriculture | Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.) | Crop production may vary depending on a warmer wetter or warmer drier climate. |
8 | Agriculture | Increased areas for commercial plantations | The total area suitable for commercial forestry plantations would increase along the eastern seaboard and adjacent areas. |
9 | Agriculture | Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth | Exposure to eldana would increase in areas suitable for sugarcane by ~10% to > 30%. The area subject to damage by chilo would increase substantially (sugarcane). The area subject to damage by codling moth would increase substantially (apples, pears, walnuts and quince). |
10 | Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Projected decreases in rainfall and hence herbage yields would result in negative health impacts for livestock. |
11 | Agriculture | Reduced food security | Reduced food security, particularly of subsistence farmers, and resultant increase in malnutrition. |
12 | Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of High Priority Biomes | High Priority Biomes (including Grasslands, Nama-Karoo, Indian Ocean Coastal Belt, Fynbos, Forest) to be replaced by other biomes such as savanna and desert. |
13 | Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems | Loss of threatened ecosystems due to changes in climate. |
14 | Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change | Loss of biodiversity and degradation of natural habitat due to significant land use change (such as alien invasion, soil erosion and urbanisation) which impacts on ability to respond to climate change |
15 | Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems | Changes in rainfall patterns and temperature are likely to impact on wetlands and the ecosystem services they provide. |
16 | Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Marine and Benthic Ecosystems | Changes in precipitation and freshwater flow; sea-level rise; increased temperatures and coastal storminess have led to changes in physical processes and biological responses which impacts marine and benthic ecosystems. |
17 | Coastal and Marine | Impacts on estuary ecosystems | Changes in precipitation and freshwater flow; sea-level rise; increased temperatures and coastal storminess have led to changes in physical processes and biological responses which impacts on estuarine ecosystems. |
18 | Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Coastal Livelihoods | An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is likely to impact on fishing activity by reducing the number of viable sea fishing days, affecting catches. |
19 | Coastal and Marine | Loss of land due to sea level rise | Increased loss of land due to sea level rise and storm surges |
20 | Coastal and Marine | Increased damage to property from sea level rise | Increased damage to property and damage to infrastructure (including coastal roads and railways, small fishing ports and harbours, and critical infrastructure such as Koeberg nuclear power station) as a result of rising sea-levels and storm surges. |
21 | Human Health | Health impacts from increased storm events | Increased storms will result increased risk of drowning, injuries and population displacement impacts. |
22 | Human Health | Increased heat stress | Increases in average temperatures and extreme events (such as heat waves) are projected to induce heat stress, increase morbidity, and result in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. |
23 | Human Health | Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and blackflies | Vector borne diseases such as malaria is projected to spread within regions bordering current malaria areas, which are presently too cold for transmission. |
24 | Human Health | Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis) | Favourable conditions for the incubation and transmission of waterborne diseases may be created by increasing air and water temperatures. |
25 | Human Health | Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity | Climate Change will affect food systems, compromising food availability, access and utilisation, leading to food insecurity (particularly of subsistence farmers). |
26 | Human Health | Increased air pollution | Health impacts in resulting from exposure to air pollutants include eye irritation, acute respiratory infection, chronic respiratory diseases and TB, and sometimes death. |
27 | Human Health | Increased Occupational health problems | Temperature is a common climatic factor that affects occupational health (for example, agricultural labourer’s productivity) by causing heat stress and dehydration. |
28 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Loss of industrial and labour productivity | Direct impacts of weather on construction, electricity generation and other industries, resulting in loss of productivity. |
29 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure | Increased disruptions to key strategic infrastructure (e.g. WWTW, storm water, roads, rail, bridges) as a result of extreme weather events. |
30 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Increased risk of extreme weather events to already vulnerable traditional and informal dwellings, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure. |
31 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Increased isolation of rural communities | Physical isolation of rural communities as a result poor rural roads and increased flooding and erosion. |
32 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas | Increased migration from rural settlements to urban and peri-urban settlements. |
33 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Increased risk of wildfires | Increased risk of wildfires linked to higher ambient temperatures, dry spells and more frequent lightning storms. |
34 | Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements | Decreased income from tourism | Reduced income from tourism as a result of reduced recreational opportunities and increased impact on tourism-supporting infrastructure, such as conservation area access roads. |
35 | Water | Decreased quality of drinking water | Deterioration in water quality due to increased salt concentrations in dams, wetlands and soil/plant systems from enhanced evaporation rates. |
36 | Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | More frequent floods result in increased effluent overflow into rivers. Increased drought means less water is available to dilute wastewater discharges and irrigation return flows to rivers. |
37 | Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Increased periods of drought mean less water is available. |
38 | Water | Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems | Human health and ecosystem impacts, associated with increased rainfall intensities, flash floods and regional flooding resulting in litter and washed-off debris blocking water and sanitation systems. |
39 | Water | Increased fish mortality | Increased freshwater fish mortality due to reduced oxygen concentrations in aquatic environments and mortality of temperature-sensitive fish species. |
Download the Vulnerability Assessment Score Sheet (Excel) to conduct your own exposure assessment.