Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Alfred Nzo District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Alfred Nzo District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation201812,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/12Bu-bHSA-_YET3SwBLlAlqVfbuhuTvcLP4iT0a4eYVI/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Alfred Nzo District Municipality CC Summary Report201713,176WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z1VtSkItR2lNd28&resourcekey=0--m2lJR9-mAokBy9Jh0BC6w&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Climate Change Response Strategy Summary 2015-202020158,101PDF<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrT2lzcWd6dTFtc1k&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Alfred Nzo over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Alfred Nzo over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Alfred Nzo over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Alfred Nzo (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Alfred Nzo using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesGrassland and Indian Ocean Coastal BeltHighUnder a high risk scenario the Savanna biome will replace a significant amount of the grassland biome and almost all of the Indian Ocean Coastal Belt biome.LowAn Environmental Management Plan (2010) has been developed for the District but does not cover the entire District. The District's Climate Change Strategy highlights the District's ecological infrastructure as it's 'primary climate response asset' and focuses on ecosystem based adaptation as a key response to climate change.
Biodiversity and EnvironmentIncreased impacts on environment due to land-use changeYesSoil erosion in the whole district. There is also increased impacts due to alien infestation across the District.HighLand degradation and transformation has occurred in the District.LowThe land areas that have been transformed have been mapped spatially in the District's Climate Change Strategy. In addition, the remaining areas have been prioritised according to their ecosystem based adaptation value. This mapping exercise can be used when assessing new developments so that the most critical areas that provide ecosystem services are protected and managed.
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystemsYesCederberg wetlands, Matatiele, Bizana, Mzimvubu River and Kinira River.HighThere is an extensive network of wetlands in the District, especially in the north, and these wetlands provide crucial ecosystem services including improving water quality and providing storm attenuation.LowThe importance of preserving wetlands is extensively covered in the District's Climate Change Strategy and responses have been included to protect wetland resources for the ecosystem services they provide.
Coastal and MarineImpacts on Marine and Benthic EcosystemsYesSea-level rise and coastal surge risk is currently minimal. In the medium and long term there will be greater risk of sea-level rise and storm surges but the risk is lower than most coastal district's in SA.HighSeveral threatened coastal ecosystem types. Endangered- ‘Natal Inshore Reef’, and many vulnerable ecosystems.LowA Coastal Zone Management Plan is scheduled for development in the 16/17 financial year.
Human HealthHealth impacts from increased storm eventsYesThe Climate Change Strategy highlights that an increase in surface water runoff will result in damage to infrastructure and human health.HighAll local municipalities infrastructure is at risk from flooding and the Bizana coastal area.LowA flood risk assessment for infrastructure is included in the Climate Change Strategy, and each local municipality has been given a risk rating.
Road infrastructure is affected mostly which hinders responsiveness.
There is a backlog due to finances.
Human HealthIncreased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurityYesAccording to the District's Climate Change Strategy, there are very high levels of food insecurity at 86%, with 40% living below the poverty line.High11.9% fatality rate of malnutrition cases in children under 5 years old.LowSocial Development has food security programmes but due to climate conditions, food security is still a challenge. There is insufficient knowledge in crop production in relation to climate change affecting food security.
Human HealthIncreased Occupational health problemsYesPeople work outdoors in agriculture across the District, and there is also a large percentage of people working outdoors in the informal sector.HighIncreased risk to farm labourers and other people working outdoors is noted in the District's Climate Change Strategy.LowMostly affected are Heard Boys, farm workers and forestry workers.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on strategic infrastructureYesSignificant infrastructure includes the N2 freeway which links the ECape and KZN provinces.Eroded bridges and access roads.
Destruction of school buildings.
HighKey transport infrastructure include the R56 and R61 which connect people across the district. Water and sanitation infrastructure is old and requires rehabilitation. Some people resort to use conservancy tanks (improperly managed), this results to water scarcity. Illegal trucks fetching water from rivers.LowKey infrastructure is old and requires maintenance and rehabilitation. According to the IDP the Municipality has started an Asset Replacement Programme. There needs to be an increase in capacity to accommodate more communities to cater for urbanisation.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesThe District is largely rural with a large proportion of people living in traditional dwellings.High55.31% of households live in traditional dwellings. Only 1.19% live in informal dwellings.LowDisaster Management Sector Plan in place. There needs to be awareness regarding proper construction of houses. Tree planting needs to be encouraged.
Conduct intergovernmental relations sessions.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased isolation of rural communitiesYesThe District's Climate Change Strategy states that there are a number of rural communities that are isolated due to poor road infrastructure. This impacts on service delivery, and affects emergency services. Many of the rural settlements are dispersed which impacts on the delivery of services such as electricity provision and waste collection.HighThe District is mostly rural.LowThere are large backlogs in the provision of services and infrastructure to remote rural settlements.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesThe IDP highlights that people are moving from the low density rural villages to the peri-urban settlements and small towns.HighThe IDP states that there is limited economic potential in the rural parts of the District and poor investment as the land is owned by Traditional Authorities.
Outsourced small rural business such as Spaza's.
There is a lack of basic services.
LowThe IDP notes that the District has been selected for the implementation of the AgriParks initiative, a presidential initiative which aims to transform rural economies in the agriculture sector. There is also a Agriculture Policy Plan and Grain Production Master Plan aimed at increasing production and employment.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased risk of wildfiresYesVeld/forest fires are identified as one of the top five hazards in the District's Disaster Management Sector Plan. More frequent veld fires are highlighted as an impact of changes in climate in the Climate Change Response PlanHighVeld fire risk is high along the district's coastline and extreme inland. Traditional dwellings and informal dwellings are at most risk due to the materials used (eg. thatch).LowThe District has a fire and rescue unit and projects with budgets in the IDP to build capacity and respond to fire. However, there is little capacity in Matatiele, Bizana, Ntabankulu and Mount Ayliff.
Lack of traditional fire by-laws.
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYesHigh salt effluent from overgrazing.HighGreen Drop Score 24% in 2011LowWater Services and Sanitation Master Plan developed. The District's Climate Change Response Plan highlights that it's ecological infrastructure is it's greatest asset in combating climate change, and highlights the need to invest in ecological infrastructure which will improve water quality in the District. Waste Water Risk Abatement Plan 2013/14 score.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Alfred Nzo (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Alfred Nzo (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Alfred Nzo (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Alfred Nzo (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References