Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Amathole District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Amathole District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation201812,980Power PointDownload
Amathole District Municipality CC Response Plan201713,054WORDDownload
Amathole District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation201812,980Power PointDownload
Amathole District Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment And Response Framework20112,033PDFDownload

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Amathole over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Amathole over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Amathole over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Amathole (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Amathole using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesMaize is the primary field crop in the DistrictHighMaize is a valuable food crop and there is potential for maize in the District. The maize is used for processing mielie meal. It is also used for animal feed.LowCropping food production Programme targets maize as a crop to assist with food insecurity.
Agri Parks stakeholders do prioritise maize production. Agri Parks are still a new concept for the Amathole District Municipality and no budget is yet in place for implementation
AgricultureChange in fruit productionYesCitrus Fruit and Pineapples. Production potential but high capital costs and management requirements make it less viable.HighThere is potential for citrus farming, but it requires substantial mentoring and marketing support. Citrus fruit and pineapple are exported.LowInsufficient capacity, skills, expertise, finance to develop citrus sector.
AgricultureChange in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)YesAll Vegetables and macadamia nuts are found within the DistrictHighPotential is high. Vegetables also grown at a subsistence level and commercially grown using irrigation. Processing eg. preservationLowFood Security Programme, and Mechanisation and Inputs supply programme targeted at communities.
AgricultureIncreased risks to livestockYesSheep and beef (commercial and subsistence). Dairy commercial farming. Poultry commercial farming. Goat subsistence farming. Game farming.HighImportant economically and at a subsistence level.LowLivestock improvement programme. Challenges include overgrazing, funding, and lack of commitment from farmers. Poor infrastructure and lack of capacity.
AgricultureReduced food securityYesFood security is projected to worsen with climate change.High51.36% households involved in agriculture in the District.LowExisting Food Security programmes in the District, however the Climate Change Strategy notes that these strategies need to be revisited to take climate change into account.
Coordinated intervention approach to stakeholders involved to malnutrition programme.
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystemsYesWetlands (Amahlathi and Great Kei)
Estuaries (Hamburg, Keiskammahoek, Mbashe, Kei Mouth, Chintsa, Hogsback)
River ecosystems (Kieskamma River ecosystem)
The Amathole District contains important wetland systems which form part of a water catchment area which supplies water to the District and Buffalo City Metro Municipality. Furthermore, estuaries serve as a nursery function for marine species.
HighWetlands provide crucial ecosystem services including improving water quality and providing storm attenuation.LowMost of the wetlands in the District are classified as ‘heavily to critically modified’. Hogsback projects in place to conserve and rehabilitate wetlands.
Coastal and MarineImpacts on Marine and Benthic EcosystemsYesIncreased temperature
Sea level rise
Storm surges - Great Kei.
69 km2 of coastal land with less than a 5.5 m elevation.
HighSeveral threatened ecosystem types. The ‘Agulhas Canyon’ and ‘Agulhas Muddy Inner Shelf’ are critically endangered.LowTwo marine protected areas: Dwesa-Cwebe Marine Protected Area and Amathole Marine Protected Area. A new protected area has also been proposed: the Amathole Offshore Marine Protected Area. There is only a Coastal Management Plan but no tool to manage benthic resources.
Coastal and MarineImpacts on estuary ecosystemsYesStorm surges, Increased temperatures, Sea level rise, Increased sedimentation due to floods. 69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. Also changes in water quality and changes due to soil erosion.HighMbashe, Great Kei, Morgan, Cintsa, Keiskamma, Old Woman’s and Great Fish estuaries are classified as ‘moderately modified’, however the condition of estuaries is mostly good, either classified as ‘unmodified, natural’ or ‘largely natural with few modifications’.LowInvasive alien species are a threat, but projects have been developed to deal with this. Not all estuaries have estuarine management. Estuary mouth closure due to sedimentation can lead to loss of biodiversity (e.g. mangroves) and low fishery reproduction.
Coastal and MarineImpacts on Coastal LivelihoodsYesADM (Mnquma, Mbashe, Great Kei, Ngqushwa). There is subsistence fishing with the District Municipality. This impact is linked to the fact that estuaries act as nurseries for juvenile fish.HighAbalone, fin fish and oyster farms at a small scale and also subsistence fishing by locals.LowAccording to the IDP, Operation Phakisa will assist fish farmers with challenges around funding, training and equipment but this only covers commercial fishing.
Coastal and MarineIncreased damage to property from sea level riseYesADM - coastal areas. Example of Great Kia, Cintsa, Hamburg and Xhora Mouth.High69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. High risk of damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements identified in the Climate Change Strategy. For example BelugaLowThe DEA is providing support to develop Coastal Management Plans for the Great Kei, Mnquma and Mbhashe Local Municipalities, however, there are currently no plans to put in infrastructure to prevent the loss of properties.
Human HealthIncreased heat stressYesThe District's Climate Change Strategy highlights that Amathole is predicted to experience more extremely hot days and heat waves which will impact on human health.High69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. High risk of damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements identified in the Climate Change Strategy. For example BelugaLowMunicipal Disaster Management, Municipal Health Services. Create more awareness programmes addressing heat wave problems. Involve other stakeholder like the Department of Health.
Human HealthIncreased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurityYesReduced food security and malnutrition are highlighted as potential risks for the District in the Climate Change Strategy.High14% fatality rate of malnutrition cases in children under 5 years old.LowExisting Food Security programmes in the District, however the Climate Change Strategy notes that these strategies need to be revisited to take climate change into account.
Coordinated intervention approach to stakeholders involved to malnutrition programme.
Human HealthIncreased Occupational health problemsYesFarm Labourers, Construction workers, Timber manufacturing workers. WTW workers, EPWP workers and landfill site workers.High51.36% households involved in agriculture in the District that possibly work outdoors. High number of people re working for private public sector.LowAgriculture, Department of Labour, Private Sector
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on strategic infrastructureYesFloods and poor roads across the District. The Climate Change Strategy highlights the impact of climate change on municipal infrastructure as a high risk.HighImportant roads in the district include the N2, N6, R63, R72, R63, R63, and R67LowLocal Municipalities, Public Works
District Disaster Management Centre and satellite centres with staff but insufficient funds for disaster response.The District is mostly rural with small town centres.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesService weather stations, ADM areas.
The District Climate Change Strategy highlights the potential risk of severe weather events on housing, especially those in flood-prone areas.
High41.31% of households live in traditional dwellings. 5.43% live in informal dwellings.LowLocal Municipalities, Human Settlements, ADM, COGTA. District Disaster Management Centre and satellite centres with staff but insufficient funds for disaster response. There are frameworks in place, but little is done on the ground.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased isolation of rural communitiesYesRaymond Mhlaba, Heavy rains, Flooding and soil erosion, Mbhashe, Mnquma, Amahlathi.High60% of the District is rural which is poorly resourced.LowLocal Municipalities, Disaster Management, Public Works. Rural infrastructure development programme. Lack of intergovernmental relations and institutional support.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesUnemployment, Poor infrastructure, Unavailability of resources, ADM. Brain drain of human capital.HighFew opportunities in the rural areas.LowLocal Municipalities, SAPS.
The district has initiated LED programmes aimed at creating jobs and sustainable livelihoods in tourism, agriculture and heritage. Strategies in place are just not working. Incentives retain highly skilled labourers.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased risk of wildfiresYesWeather events have occured in the Amahlathi, Raymond Mhlaba, Mnquma, Ngqushwa and Mbhashe LMs. Increased risk of wildfires and shack fires is highlighted in the District's Climate Change Strategy.HighMost of the district area's fire risk is extreme, but there are some low and medium risk pockets.LowADM - Fire and Disaster Management
DAFF
No specialised or adequate resources are available to deal with major events in case of emergencies.
Fire protection association is etablished throughout the District.
Lack of funding to implement identified challenges in the District.
Lack of institutional relations in the District.
WaterLess water available for irrigation and drinkingYesDrought, Entire ADM area.HighThe District has experienced droughts as far back as 2006. The District Climate Change strategy indicates that drought incidents will occur more frequently in the future.LowDepartment of Water Affairs
ADM - Engineering and sanitation
Municipal Health
Retrofitting projects to reduce water loss
DWS
WaterIncreased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systemsYesThe IDP states that LMs are experiencing challenges relating to the management of landfill sites.
The District is a predominantly rural municipality and there is no refuse collection in rural areas.
High17.16% of households have no form of rubbish disposal, with only 15% of households receiving waste collection services.LowDistrict has a functional Environment and Waste Management Unit and all LMs have Integrated Waste Management Plans.The District receives support from DEA and DEDEAT on waste management projects. Lack of prioritisation of waste management
Cross CuttingLack of Coordination regarding climate change responses in the municipalityYesChange in land use, water quality, biomes and habitat are affecting fauna.HighThe District has endemic species which do no not occur anywhere else and are under threat.LowThe District only has the IEUP which does not address issues of maintaining species populations and sustainability.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Amathole (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Amathole (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Amathole (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Amathole (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References