Draft Climate Change Plan
File Name | Year | Size (MB) | Type | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amathole District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1z49Jy50ZCwmltT9P5o4g2fOZK35SAYOkunvwaqK3HCk/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| Amathole District Municipality CC Response Plan | 2017 | 13,054 | WORD | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z1doS2kwbXZCY2M&resourcekey=0-8WsNn8ihwU0o7w8fCNS9Eg&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| Amathole District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1nTrhrlS0vsu-dB3o9nHxsGH0y8Lp1_UTZGnPg5KJLLU/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| Amathole District Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment And Response Framework | 2011 | 2,033 | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrajVoVThQZzFyZnc" target="_blank">Download</a> |
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Yes | Maize is the primary field crop in the District | High | Maize is a valuable food crop and there is potential for maize in the District. The maize is used for processing mielie meal. It is also used for animal feed. | Low | Cropping food production Programme targets maize as a crop to assist with food insecurity. Agri Parks stakeholders do prioritise maize production. Agri Parks are still a new concept for the Amathole District Municipality and no budget is yet in place for implementation |
| Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Yes | Citrus Fruit and Pineapples. Production potential but high capital costs and management requirements make it less viable. | High | There is potential for citrus farming, but it requires substantial mentoring and marketing support. Citrus fruit and pineapple are exported. | Low | Insufficient capacity, skills, expertise, finance to develop citrus sector. |
| Agriculture | Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.) | Yes | All Vegetables and macadamia nuts are found within the District | High | Potential is high. Vegetables also grown at a subsistence level and commercially grown using irrigation. Processing eg. preservation | Low | Food Security Programme, and Mechanisation and Inputs supply programme targeted at communities. |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Sheep and beef (commercial and subsistence). Dairy commercial farming. Poultry commercial farming. Goat subsistence farming. Game farming. | High | Important economically and at a subsistence level. | Low | Livestock improvement programme. Challenges include overgrazing, funding, and lack of commitment from farmers. Poor infrastructure and lack of capacity. |
| Agriculture | Reduced food security | Yes | Food security is projected to worsen with climate change. | High | 51.36% households involved in agriculture in the District. | Low | Existing Food Security programmes in the District, however the Climate Change Strategy notes that these strategies need to be revisited to take climate change into account. Coordinated intervention approach to stakeholders involved to malnutrition programme. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems | Yes | Wetlands (Amahlathi and Great Kei) Estuaries (Hamburg, Keiskammahoek, Mbashe, Kei Mouth, Chintsa, Hogsback) River ecosystems (Kieskamma River ecosystem) The Amathole District contains important wetland systems which form part of a water catchment area which supplies water to the District and Buffalo City Metro Municipality. Furthermore, estuaries serve as a nursery function for marine species. | High | Wetlands provide crucial ecosystem services including improving water quality and providing storm attenuation. | Low | Most of the wetlands in the District are classified as ‘heavily to critically modified’. Hogsback projects in place to conserve and rehabilitate wetlands. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Marine and Benthic Ecosystems | Yes | Increased temperature Sea level rise Storm surges - Great Kei. 69 km2 of coastal land with less than a 5.5 m elevation. | High | Several threatened ecosystem types. The ‘Agulhas Canyon’ and ‘Agulhas Muddy Inner Shelf’ are critically endangered. | Low | Two marine protected areas: Dwesa-Cwebe Marine Protected Area and Amathole Marine Protected Area. A new protected area has also been proposed: the Amathole Offshore Marine Protected Area. There is only a Coastal Management Plan but no tool to manage benthic resources. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on estuary ecosystems | Yes | Storm surges, Increased temperatures, Sea level rise, Increased sedimentation due to floods. 69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. Also changes in water quality and changes due to soil erosion. | High | Mbashe, Great Kei, Morgan, Cintsa, Keiskamma, Old Woman’s and Great Fish estuaries are classified as ‘moderately modified’, however the condition of estuaries is mostly good, either classified as ‘unmodified, natural’ or ‘largely natural with few modifications’. | Low | Invasive alien species are a threat, but projects have been developed to deal with this. Not all estuaries have estuarine management. Estuary mouth closure due to sedimentation can lead to loss of biodiversity (e.g. mangroves) and low fishery reproduction. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Coastal Livelihoods | Yes | ADM (Mnquma, Mbashe, Great Kei, Ngqushwa). There is subsistence fishing with the District Municipality. This impact is linked to the fact that estuaries act as nurseries for juvenile fish. | High | Abalone, fin fish and oyster farms at a small scale and also subsistence fishing by locals. | Low | According to the IDP, Operation Phakisa will assist fish farmers with challenges around funding, training and equipment but this only covers commercial fishing. |
| Coastal and Marine | Increased damage to property from sea level rise | Yes | ADM - coastal areas. Example of Great Kia, Cintsa, Hamburg and Xhora Mouth. | High | 69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. High risk of damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements identified in the Climate Change Strategy. For example Beluga | Low | The DEA is providing support to develop Coastal Management Plans for the Great Kei, Mnquma and Mbhashe Local Municipalities, however, there are currently no plans to put in infrastructure to prevent the loss of properties. |
| Human Health | Increased heat stress | Yes | The District's Climate Change Strategy highlights that Amathole is predicted to experience more extremely hot days and heat waves which will impact on human health. | High | 69 km2 of coastal land below 5.5 m elevation. High risk of damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements identified in the Climate Change Strategy. For example Beluga | Low | Municipal Disaster Management, Municipal Health Services. Create more awareness programmes addressing heat wave problems. Involve other stakeholder like the Department of Health. |
| Human Health | Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity | Yes | Reduced food security and malnutrition are highlighted as potential risks for the District in the Climate Change Strategy. | High | 14% fatality rate of malnutrition cases in children under 5 years old. | Low | Existing Food Security programmes in the District, however the Climate Change Strategy notes that these strategies need to be revisited to take climate change into account. Coordinated intervention approach to stakeholders involved to malnutrition programme. |
| Human Health | Increased Occupational health problems | Yes | Farm Labourers, Construction workers, Timber manufacturing workers. WTW workers, EPWP workers and landfill site workers. | High | 51.36% households involved in agriculture in the District that possibly work outdoors. High number of people re working for private public sector. | Low | Agriculture, Department of Labour, Private Sector |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure | Yes | Floods and poor roads across the District. The Climate Change Strategy highlights the impact of climate change on municipal infrastructure as a high risk. | High | Important roads in the district include the N2, N6, R63, R72, R63, R63, and R67 | Low | Local Municipalities, Public Works District Disaster Management Centre and satellite centres with staff but insufficient funds for disaster response.The District is mostly rural with small town centres. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Yes | Service weather stations, ADM areas. The District Climate Change Strategy highlights the potential risk of severe weather events on housing, especially those in flood-prone areas. | High | 41.31% of households live in traditional dwellings. 5.43% live in informal dwellings. | Low | Local Municipalities, Human Settlements, ADM, COGTA. District Disaster Management Centre and satellite centres with staff but insufficient funds for disaster response. There are frameworks in place, but little is done on the ground. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased isolation of rural communities | Yes | Raymond Mhlaba, Heavy rains, Flooding and soil erosion, Mbhashe, Mnquma, Amahlathi. | High | 60% of the District is rural which is poorly resourced. | Low | Local Municipalities, Disaster Management, Public Works. Rural infrastructure development programme. Lack of intergovernmental relations and institutional support. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas | Yes | Unemployment, Poor infrastructure, Unavailability of resources, ADM. Brain drain of human capital. | High | Few opportunities in the rural areas. | Low | Local Municipalities, SAPS. The district has initiated LED programmes aimed at creating jobs and sustainable livelihoods in tourism, agriculture and heritage. Strategies in place are just not working. Incentives retain highly skilled labourers. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased risk of wildfires | Yes | Weather events have occured in the Amahlathi, Raymond Mhlaba, Mnquma, Ngqushwa and Mbhashe LMs. Increased risk of wildfires and shack fires is highlighted in the District's Climate Change Strategy. | High | Most of the district area's fire risk is extreme, but there are some low and medium risk pockets. | Low | ADM - Fire and Disaster Management DAFF No specialised or adequate resources are available to deal with major events in case of emergencies. Fire protection association is etablished throughout the District. Lack of funding to implement identified challenges in the District. Lack of institutional relations in the District. |
| Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Yes | Drought, Entire ADM area. | High | The District has experienced droughts as far back as 2006. The District Climate Change strategy indicates that drought incidents will occur more frequently in the future. | Low | Department of Water Affairs ADM - Engineering and sanitation Municipal Health Retrofitting projects to reduce water loss DWS |
| Water | Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems | Yes | The IDP states that LMs are experiencing challenges relating to the management of landfill sites. The District is a predominantly rural municipality and there is no refuse collection in rural areas. | High | 17.16% of households have no form of rubbish disposal, with only 15% of households receiving waste collection services. | Low | District has a functional Environment and Waste Management Unit and all LMs have Integrated Waste Management Plans.The District receives support from DEA and DEDEAT on waste management projects. Lack of prioritisation of waste management |
| Cross Cutting | Lack of Coordination regarding climate change responses in the municipality | Yes | Change in land use, water quality, biomes and habitat are affecting fauna. | High | The District has endemic species which do no not occur anywhere else and are under threat. | Low | The District only has the IEUP which does not address issues of maintaining species populations and sustainability. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.