Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in Sorghum production||Yes||Emalahleni LM and Intsika Yethu LM has a potential to yield sorghum.|
Emalahleni LM - sorghum is commercial and subsistence farming.
CHDM is an arid area.
|High||Source of income for some households(Co-Ops), food security||Low||DRDAR: CHDM agency|
LMs educate local communities but they have to get permission from the Induna's first.
There is limited financial capacity which is dependent on the yield quantities produced.
Lack of capacity and commitment from co-ops.
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Request information from DRDAR for areas with fruit farming||High||There will be great impact on production and food security.||Low||DRDAR. LEDs|
The District needs more research and institutional support
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||The district depends on subsistence farming to improve livelihoods and the economy.|
All LMs are affected in commercial and subsistence farming
|High||The district depends on subsistence farming to improve livelihoods and the economy||Low||Constant change in climate is having a negative impact in farming. |
DRDAR, LEDs, Farmers Association.
Rainfall varies in different regions of the District and affects subsistence farmers the most.
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||There is probability of food insecurities in near future due to shortage of rainfall.|
Subsistence and commercial farming will be affected
|High||44%. The district depends on subsistence farming to improve livelihoods and the economy||Low||Scarcity of water.|
DRDAR, LEDs, Farmers Association, Ward Councillors, Traditional Leaders
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||CHDM has Grassland, Nama-Karoo and Savanna biomes||High||Adverse change in climate results in change in area vegetation.|
Human activities such as grazing.
Poor land care management.
|Low||Implementing and adhering to climate change response strategies and mitigation measures can reduce loss of the district's biomes.|
Alien invasive and bush encroachment plant management strategy.
Funding constraints, inadequate personnel and there is no specialised unit for biodiversity.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||Loss of agricultural land due to increasing residential settlements.|
Improper LandCare management due to agricultural activities.
|High||Loss of agricultural land due to increasing residential settlements.|
Improper land care.
|Low||There are projects in place which are currently running in response, e.g. LandCare management programmes (Zingquthu Rehabilitation project).|
There is a need for proper cooperation with traditional leaders, sector departments and municipalities.
The District needs LandCare management plan/strategy endorsed by all sector departments.
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||We are inland and in an arid region. Temperatures have increased in the district over the years||High||Many people are benefiting from Social grants.|
Approximately 50% of the population is the elderly.
|Low||CHDM does conduct health and wellness education and awareness programmes but these do not address heat stress and other climate related health issues.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||Whole DM - due to snow and flooding. |
Human Settlements would have info on that
|High||0||Low||CHDM, LMs, EPWP, DOW.|
Continuous maintenance is a challenge.
No stormwater management plan.
Lack of supervision of EPWP/training and lack of youth in the EPWP.
National and regional infrastructure versus local responsibilities.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||District wide, as it is mostly rural,|
QTN informal settlements.
CHDM is a rural district municipality = many traditional dwellings. We do also have informal dwellings but not so many.
|High||CHDM is a rural district municipality = many traditional dwellings. We do also have informal dwellings in all local municipalities.||Low||Disaster Management unit has a preventative and mitigation plan to respond to the risks.|
IDHS, CHDM, DHS.
Only Engcobo and Sakhisizwe have fire centres.
CHDM and Emalahleni have disaster management plans, but this remains a challenge for other locals.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||District wide problem as we have poor road infrastructure.|
Our communities are scattered
|High||CHDM is a rural district municipality||Low||CHDM|
CHDM - Disaster
LMs - Disaster Unit
IDHS - LMs
CHDM and Emalahleni have disaster management plans, but this remains a challenge for other locals. The existing plans have also not yet been implemented.
There has been no improvement in infrastructure development (bridges, roads etc.), especially in the rural areas due to budget constraints.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||People are moving nearer to town to be closer to workplaces hence the increase in informal dwellings.|
EnLM, EM, Sak LM, IYLM, EMLM (QTN).
Poor services in rural areas due to poor infrastructure.
|High||There is not much economic activity happening in rural areas hence they are moving in urban areas. There is however, the Intsika Yethu Programme aimed at enhancing the rural economy by investing in irrigations schemes for agriculture.||Low||There is a plenty of land to be developed in rural areas.|
CHDM, LMs - PMS unit, DHS.
The is no development taking place yet.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Decreased income from tourism||Yes||Tsolwana Game Reserve, Emalahleni (Natural Heritage Sites) that can be impacted by climate change.|
EnLM - Hero's park
EM - Glen Grey waterfalls
Flooding and rock falls
IYLM - Chris Hani- sabalele (erosion due to floods)
|High||There is potential for tourism to boost the local economy.||Low||Provincial DEDEAT may have more info., also CHDM LED|
LED - LMs
CHDM - Disaster
CHDM - LED
Marketing is lacking and some of the infrastructure is damaged.
Some are underutilised.
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Yes, due to the increasing temperatures resulting in high evaporation rate, water levels decreasing.|
EMLM - WWTW (Molten)
Because of dilapidated infrastructure, wastewater is discharged into the Orange River.
Poor management and maintenance.
|High||The latest Green Drop score for the CHDM is 51.57%||Low||There are responsible units (MHS and Water Services) responsible to check for water quality.|
Research is required, financial support is much needed, community building capacity is needed, and institutional support is needed.
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Currently, this is occurring throughout the District. |
Municipality have started implementing water restrictions have already.
Sources are already dried up, e.g. Bonkolo and Dordrecht Dams (10%)
|High||The district has been declared as a drought stricken area||Low||Department of Water and Sanitation is supplying water to communities |
CHDM, DWA, NDMC (National Disaster Management Centre)
Financial support is needed.
Institutional support is needed (in terms of systems).
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||In areas like Mlungisi and in the CBD, there has been burst of sewage pipes which are a health hazard. This is common in almost all the local municipalities.|
EMLM - Qtn - Poor stormwater drainage system and maintenance plans.
All LMs are affected.
|High||Waste Management Plans are implemented and available in some urban and semi-urban areas only. 17.87% of households do not have access to rubbish disposal in CHDM.||Low||WWSA contracted by CHDM is responsible for water and sanitation of the district but are not proactive.|
Institutional support is needed - develop infrastructure WMP to those that do not have and adopted by the council.
Financial support is needed to develop and implement WMP.
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.