Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||Maize in Elundini Local Municipality.|
Barley in Senqu Local Municipality and Walter Sisulu Local Municipality. There is also sunflower in the District.
|High||Maize is a key crop and contributes to the local economy's GDP.||Low||Research on suitable cultivar has been conducted more especially by commercial farmers.|
LandCare programme addresses issues regarding alternative crop production.
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||Cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, horses, animal fibre throughout the District. Poultry and game farming at Walter Sisulu and Elundini Local Municipality. Animal fibre.||High||Highly sensitive as a District because livestock is an important commodity. Senqu and Walter Sisulu Local Municipalities and Elundini have more livestock. The livestock is used for milking, wool and eggs.||Low||Recent droughts have caused veldfires. Farmers were battling to adapt to severe climate conditions.|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Swine flu and bird flu affecting poultry which is a source of food. Maize production hindered by Fall Armyworm. Listeriosis is also a concern.||High||Most households are involved in food gardening.||Low||The municipality has implemented initiatives such as sprays for gardening and manure. However, these are not enough.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Grassland throughout the Joe Gqabi District Municipality. For example, in Walter Sisulu LM: Burgersdorp, Ventersland, Steynsburg.||High||The District has mostly grassland and Nama-Karoo biomes which are priority biomes.||Low||There is no adaptive capacity. The DM needs to integrate planning and implementation. The DM also needs a legislative framework.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||Land degradation and erosion in Senqu Local Municipality, Elundini Local Municipality and Walter Sisulu Local Municipality.||High||Further research needs to be conducted to understand the extent of biodiversity loss.||Low||There is no adaptive capacity. The DM needs to integrate planning and implementation. The DM also needs a legislative framework.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems||Yes||Wetlands in Elundini Local Municipality, WSLM and Aliwal North has hot springs (Spa). Senqu-Barkley East.||High||Wetlands and river systems in the JGD are essential to maintain the three pillars of sustainability which are social, economic and environment. |
Economic- wetlands (reeds) farmers
Environment- Carbon sequestration, water quality purification, biodiversity.
|Low||There is no adaptive capacity. The DM needs to integrate planning and implementation. The DM also needs a legislative framework.|
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||Throughout the entire Joe Gqabi District Municipality.||High||Agricultural labourers|
EPWP workers, EHPs
Road and construction workers,
Municipal workers (waste sites).
|Low||Financial capacity is limited.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Loss of industrial and labour productivity||Yes||Walter Sisulu Local Municipality, Elundini Local Municipality and Senqu Local Municipality. There are quarries, furniture and brick making within the district. PG Bison Forestation Industry.||High||Mining, board manufacturing, tree planting and harvesting activities in the District may be affected by climate change.||Low||There is no production.|
Coping capacity is low, and this leads to stress and suicidal activities /mood/thought.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||Throughout the District. Roads and bridges.|
R390; N6; R392; R58.
Water restriction system.
|High||Affects service delivery (roads not being accessible)|
Operational costs will increase, and road accidents will increase.
Infrastructure not appropriate for the level of development.
|Low||Depend on equitable share which is not adequate for the needs. Review of the formula for allocations equitable share to be in line with the needs that of the households.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Throughout the District||High||Most houses are mud structures||Low||High risk, not resistant due to severe weather conditions.|
There needs to be a promotion of rapid development of fixed structures.
Fast tracking of human settlements housing projects in rural and urban areas needs to take place.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||Elundini, Senqu and Gariep Local Municipalities.|
In early Feb 2018 roads and bridges were washed away by floods in Elundini and Senqu Local Municipalities. The District also experiences snowfalls which impact on the accessibility of rural communities to services.
|High||90% of the area is rural||Low||Response is limited due to remoteness of area. |
Task team formed to assess and respond to damaged roads and infrastructure.
Limited resources i.e. finance.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||Throughout the Joe Gqabi District Municipality.||High||People migrate from rural to urban areas.||Low||Capacity is low on both sides.|
There's needs to be investments on local economic projects.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased risk of wildfires||Yes||Throughout the Joe Gqabi District Municipality.||High||Affect the community in the region. It also affects business continuity and community livelihoods.||Low||There is limited capacity.|
Local municipalities to render fire services.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Decreased income from tourism||Yes||Tiffindell in Senqu local Municipality and game farming in Walter Sisulu Local Municipality and Senqu Local Municipality.|
Tenahead in Senqu
Rock Cave paintings in Senqu
Heritage site in Walter Sisulu
Memorial site in Walter Sisulu
Hot Springs in Walter Sisulu
Game farming in Walter Sisulu.
|High||Job creation||Low||Conduct tourism feasibility study.|
Invest in tourism to reduce unemployment in the region.
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Drought is felt throughout the Joe Gqabi District Municipality more especially Walter Sisulu Local Municipality.||High||The District's latest Green Drop Score is very poor at 49.86%. Pollution of ecosystems is impacting on public health||Low||There needs to be a focus on strengthening community capacity. |
Development of Risk Abatement Plans.
There needs to be improvement of management and operations of the facility. Lastly relations with DWS as a regulator need to be strengthened.
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||Blocking stormwater system through the Joe Gqabi District Municipality and this impacts on roads, infrastructure and contamination in rivers.||High||More blockages on storm water systems. Increased contamination of the environment, public health impacts. |
Increase in water treatment works. 13.93% of households do not have access to any form of rubbish disposal.
|Low||Mainly capacity constraint is funding for implementation of plans.|
Improve working relations with local municipalities and relevant departments.
|Coastal and Marine||Increased damage to property and loss of land from sea level rise||Yes||Less/ change in Fodder production due to change in climate conditions. This is grown throughout the District.||High||Used for livestock feed more during drought seasons. Works as a supplement for feed in winter as well.||Low||0|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.