Draft Climate Change Plan
File Name | Year | Size (MB) | Type | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR Tambo District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1cUeI457kAduPIFKm4Ebv8rG5-ZBbq5WYcayAHy_G9So/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| OR Tambo District Municipality CC Response Plan | 2017 | 12,842 | WORD | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z21mX3RsV2dibVE&resourcekey=0-duFWrml5-XfHrN1S5AmDIg&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| OR Tambo District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ideU7PmrAMS3MnkwXcdZvQD7KkrR50A61btr20t_Gfw/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| OR Tambo District Municipality Draft Climate Change Response Strategy | 2017 | 8,146 | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrZUtvVXZMclRHQmhLS0dSNFBVVVhDQkRBOWFF" target="_blank">Download</a> |
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Yes | All local municipalities grow maize for subsistence and commercial farming. | High | Maize is important for livelihoods. Maize will be highly affected. | Low | Agricultural support for maize projects are taking place across the District. The District Climate Change Strategy highlights that maize will be affected by climate change. Agri Park to include a focus on maize production. |
| Agriculture | Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.) | Yes | All local municipalities grow cabbage, spinach, potato, nuts (pecan, macadamia) and sweet potato. Tea, Cotton, and Canola are three other important crops. | High | Vegetable production is important from a livelihoods perspective. | Low | A feasibility study has been conducted on Agriparks, Agri Park to include a focus on fruit and vegetable production. The District Climate Change Strategy states that the change in climate won't negatively affect tea production but this needs to be reviewed. |
| Agriculture | Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth | Yes | KSD, Mbizana, Mhlahlane, Mhlontlo- -Armyworms -Locusts/grasshoppers -Moles -Stalk Borer -Aphids -Migratory/ invasive | High | African Bollworm, Armyworms and Stalk Borer affect maize which is a priority crop. Other pests in the District include (Apples, Pears, Walnuts are not grown in the District) | Low | The capacity to respond is very low. |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Potential impacts on animals include compromised immune systems, and heat stress, as well as lower growth rates due to lower feed intake. This will take place in all local municipalities for all types of livestock, including, but not limited to cattle, goats, sheep, and poultry. Some species are more prone than others. Increases in rainfall can result in changes in the vegetation profile as well. Furthermore, the change in climate may also result in increased exposure to animal disease, including the occurrence of new diseases and the change in the prevalence of animal disease. Diseases that used to be under control are resurfacing again. Zoonosis, diseases that are transferable from animals to humans are occuring. Worms and ticks. | High | Livestock is a priority at a subsistence and livelihood scale. According to the IDP, the District has the largest livestock communal farming practice in the country. | Low | District-wide Livestock Improvement Programme, includes beef, wool, sheep and goat production. Aims to assist communal farmers with support to improve the quality of the livestock and access formal markets. More consultations are needed from animal scientists and vets. Furthermore, research is required on more efficient production systems, more adaptive species, and, better resource management. |
| Agriculture | Reduced food security | Yes | In all local municipalities due to projected high increase in temperatures. Climate change may impact on food production and food security. | High | 55% of households are involved in agriculture in the District. | Low | Support has been given to cooperatives and SMMEs in the District for food production. One-household-one-food-garden programme. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems | Yes | There are several ecosystem types that are categorised as vulnerable. These include Ngongoni Veld, Mthatha Moist Grassland, Eastern Temperate Freshwater wetlands, and Transkei Coastal Forest. | High | A significant amount of the District is covered by vulnerable ecosystems. | Low | The District has an Environmental Management Plan and Environmental Management and Spatial Planning Forum. Issues of staff capacity and funds. There is a lack in implementation due to insufficient resources |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change | Yes | Rezoning of grassland to settlements and mielie fields to settlements. The District's IDP states that land degradation is a problem in the District, especially soil erosion, as well as alien invasive plants. | High | A large amount of land has been lost due to soil erosion, which is linked to poor agricultural practices and heavy rain events. Furthermore, land grabs have taken place along the N2 and N2 toll roads which have had a negative impact on the environment. | Low | The District has an Environmental Management Plan and Environmental Management and Spatial Planning Forum. It also has a number of protected areas, and the SDF includes areas allocated for conservation. Issues of staff capacity and funds. There is a lack of cooperative governance such as traditional leaders and municipalities working together through COGTA. The non-implementation of SPLUMA to manage land has had a negative effect. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Marine and Benthic Ecosystems | Yes | Coastal areas below 5.5m are at risk from sea-level rise and storm surges. 21 km2 of coastal land below 5.5m. There are 34 estuarine systems in the District. | High | There are several endangered and vulnerable ecosystems in the coastal zone. The endangered ecosystems include: Natal Muddy shelf, Natal Muddy Inshore and Natal Inshore Reef. | Low | A Coastal Management Programme has recently been adopted by council. Illegal coastal developments are an issue. The District has two protected marine areas. There is a lack in staff capacity. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Coastal Livelihoods | Yes | Large number of fish species and large number of invertebrates (e.g. mussels, oysters etc.) that may be negatively impacted by climate change. Harvesting of seaweed by communities. | High | The District's Climate Change Strategy highlights the importance marine resources contribute to the economy and to livelihoods. There are 530 commercial fish processing facilities, as well as around 1,000 subsistence fishers. Recreational tourist fishing also occurs. | Low | Two marine protected areas in the District. No support programmes to fishers. A coastal management programme has recently been approved by council. There is however, a lack of staff capacity and many illegal developments taking place on the coast. Enforcement takes place yet there is no awareness and education to the community. |
| Human Health | Health impacts from increased storm events | Yes | Storms and flooding are rated as a high risk in the District's Disaster Risk Profile, especially for rural and urban communities. | High | Unsure how densely populated areas in flood zones are, but the IDP states that people living in rural communities are particularly at risk, due to low quality housing material and poor rural infrastructure. | Low | A District Disaster Risk Management Plan is in place as well as an advisory forum. However, not all LMs have Disaster Management plans. Backlogs affect capacity. Precautionary measures are needed. Need to increase early warning systems, as well as community education and awareness campaigns. |
| Human Health | Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis) | Yes | The District's Climate Change Strategy indicates that there will be an increase in waterborne diseases due to climate change, such as cholera. There also may be an increase in STI's and STD's due to depression and stress. | High | Not sure about recent cases of cholera, typhoid and hepatitis, however the IDP highlights human diseases, including HIV, TB, and Cholera as high risk in the District. 30.2% of children’s deaths in the District were due to diarrhoeal diseases. 75.33% of the District’s households do not source water from piped water schemes making them more susceptible to waterborne diseases. | Low | Increases in waterborne and communicable diseases will place further pressure on existing health services and infrastructure. Provision of clean water is needed. Need to increase early warning systems, as well as community education and awareness campaigns. Sampling of water needs to take place. |
| Human Health | Increased Occupational health problems | Yes | People work outdoors in agriculture across the District, and there is also a large percentage of people working outdoors in the informal sector. Injuries | High | 55% of households are involved in agriculture, and 16.7% are informally employed. Many of these people work outdoors. | Low | Unsure of capacity to cope with increased heat stress and the impact on people working outdoors. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Yes | The District is largely rural with a large proportion of people living in traditional dwellings. | High | 54.24% of households live in traditional dwellings. Only 1.46% live in informal dwellings. | Low | A District Disaster Risk Management Plan is in place as well as an advisory forum. However, implementation of the plan is an issue. Not all LMs have Disaster Management plans. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased isolation of rural communities | Yes | Approximately 93% of the population lives in homesteads and villages (OR Tambo DM IDP). However the population density is higher than in other districts in the province. | High | The District is mostly rural with most settlement around Mthatha | Low | The District is one of four Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme (ISRDP) nodes in the Eastern Cape, however there are vast backlogs in delivering services and infrastructure in rural areas. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas | Yes | There is rural-urban migration to Mthatha and to the smaller urban centres of Port St Johns and Lusikisiki, however these rates of migration are slowing down (OR Tambo DM IDP). | High | The District is based on a rural subsistence economy. There are very few opportunities in these areas for economic development (OR Tambo DM IDP). | Low | Migration is placing further pressure on existing infrastructure in urban areas. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased risk of wildfires | Yes | Veld and settlement fires are rated as a high risk in the District's Disaster Risk Profile. Veld fires in rural areas are especially damaging due to the impact on subsistence farming. | High | Fire Risk across the District is mostly extreme, with some pockets of high risk on the coast, and some small pockets inland of medium and low risk. | Low | District Fire Services Unit within the Disaster Management Centre. Plans to address veld fires in the areas of highest risk have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders. But many challenges regarding budget and awareness still occur. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Decreased income from tourism | Yes | Climate Change impacts may affect infrastructure in the District and impact on tourism. The natural environment is a key tourism asset. | High | Tourism is a key economic driver in the District. Tourism has great potential in the District due to the pristine natural environment, culture and historical heritage (OR Tambo DM IDP). | Low | District Development Agency promotes tourism in the district. Tourism nodes and corridors identified in the SDF. However, there are problems with accessing tourist sites. |
| Water | Decreased quality of drinking water | Yes | Due to projected increases in temperatures there will be high evaporation rate and a decrease in water quality. Due to improper sanitation, over-pollution, destruction of wetlands. | High | 2014 Blue Drop Score 49%. The Mthatha Dam is the major water resource in the District. There is a need to regulate the developments upstream of the dam and mitigate the impact of sewage and septic tanks in the vicinity. | Low | Water Services Development Plan, Water Master Plan |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | Due to frequent droughts. There are less cases of floods in the District. Ingquza Hill Local Municipality, Port St Johns Local Municipality, King Sabata Dalindyebo Local Municipality, these municipalities do not experience agri drought. Nyandeni and Mhlontlo Local Municipality due to St Barnabas hospital discharging sewage into the river. The water in the Mthatha River and Mzimvubu River is of poor quality. | High | 2013 Green Drop Score 20.69% | Low | Water Services Development Plan, Sanitation Master Plan |
| Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Yes | Due to drought there are decreased levels in dams and a lack of infrastructure. | High | Drought is regarded as a high risk in the District and took place in the last year. The main source of water in the District is from Mthatha Dam and therefore there is a need to fast-track the construction of Mzimvubu (Laleni and Ntabelanga) Dam. When there are flood events, the District needs to have the capacity to collect the rainwater to use later on in times of drought. | Low | A District Disaster Risk Management Plan is in place as well as an advisory forum. However, not all LMs have Disaster Management plans. The complete water management system needs to be revisited. E.g. Desilting of the existing earth dams, managing anti-erosion infrastructure. construction of new earth dams. The District needs to promote the collection of water through the installation of rainwater harvesting tanks, and the creation of reservoirs with canals from flood plains and rivers. The District must identify the floodplains for the redirection of flood water to reservoirs. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Soil Fertility | Yes | Lantana Camara Nightshade Boza boza | High | 0 | Low | There is low capacity |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on infrastructure | Yes | There have been an increased number of incidences of plant diseases. Citrus greening in PSJ, Ingquza Hill, Nyandeni Fusarium Wilt, Citrus black sport, Sclerotina on soy bean and cabbage in PSJ KSD and Ingquza Hill. There has also been an increase in Post Harvest diseases. | High | Most people depend on agricultural produce (especially crops) in the District. Plant diseases will result in reduced yields and negatively affect human health. | Low | Funding is required to establish diagnostic labs, and hold training workshops. There needs to be a monitoring of, or enforcement of, retailers to comply with keeping produce under safer conditions. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.