Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||Maize, wheat, barley, sunflowers and potatoes are grown in the District Municipal Area.||High||Nala-maize hub, International Agricultural festival Nampo, food basket of the Free State.||Low||Agriculture and Land Reform, Agri SA, Agriparks, research e.g. Glen College UOFs, policy, Grain SA, lack of finance).|
|Agriculture||Change in Sorghum production||Yes||Sorghum is grown in the District Municipal Area, e.g. Bultfontein, Dealesville, Hoopstad, Bothaville. There is potential exposure in maize belts.||High||Sorghum has a similar sensitivity to grain in the District Municipal Area.||Low||No capacity for promoting production.|
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||Examples of the livestock produced in the District Municipal Area include cattle, pigs, sheeps, goats and poultry.||High||All contribute to the local economy.||Low||Agriculture and Land Reform, Agri SA, lack of finance.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Grassland||High||Loss of Grassland may have an impact on farming practices and communities.||Low||Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (may be unaware of activities that might be happening), SANBI.|
Municipality has no policies, finance, institutional support or research at present.
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||Increased heat taking place (e.g. 36 to 43 degrees centigrade) in some areas.||High||In the District Municipal Area, 15.93% of people are either young or elderly.||Low||SAWS.|
No finance, policy implemented or research.
|Human Health||Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and blackflies||Yes||Exposure to vector borne diseases increases as temperatures increase.||High||Large numbers of people are affected||Low||Health Department, PDMC, DWS. There are not enough programs.|
|Human Health||Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity||Yes||Low income group will not afford high food prices, e.g. imported maize and chicken.||High||There are 21.5 incidence per 1000 children. |
Scaling down of mines and decrease in cultivable land.
|Low||Department of Agriculture, DEA|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Loss of industrial and labour productivity||Yes||In Welkom and Virginia. |
Gold and diamond mines and a plant is being built in Odendaalsrus.
|High||Mining||Low||Labour Department, Industrial Sector.|
Sits with Province but District Municipality can develop a human settlements chapter in it's IDP. No established department.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||R30, R40, R64, R34, R700, R59, R1 and N1 roads, airports and the railway linking Johannesburg to Bloemfontein and Cape Town.||High||Some roads have alternative routes.||Low||Road Agency, Traffic Department.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Most of the areas are informal settlements||High||Wesselsbron, Verkeerdevlei and Theunissen.||Low||Local Municipalities, Department of Human Settlements, COGTA|
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||No, or lack of, infrastructure maintenance.|
Severe drought conditions.
|High||The District Municipal Area has a rate of 2.7 incidences per 1000 children.||Low||Department of Water and Sanitation. There are already water restrictions in place.|
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||Poor maintenance of sewer pipe line and manholes. |
Unblocking does not take place in time.
Lack of equipment at treatment plants.
Lack of qualified personnel at treatment plant.
|High||In the District Municipal Area, 4.39% of households use no rubbish disposal.||Low||Local Municipalities|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.