Xhariep

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Xhariep District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
Xhariep District Municipality CC Presentation	2016	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mQM2ik8JOeQpuAbdziU7x4BG_llWb5pq0YDyMzQrRno/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>
Xhariep District Municipality CC Response Plan	2016	4,265	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrbkR1Y1JsYnpyM28&resourcekey=0-ctLGGpZL0Iu14dZw1Gwtog&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Xhariep over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Xhariep over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Xhariep over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Xhariep (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Xhariep using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Increased risks to livestock	Yes	Fish, sheep, goats and Ostrich.	High	Sheep and ostriches in Kopanong Local Municipality. Sheep, cattle and ostriches in Letsemeng Local Municipality. Sheep, cattle and goats in Mohokare Local Municipality.	Low	Department of Agriculture in each Local Municipality. Weather dependent. Dependent on available water sources.
Agriculture	Reduced food security	Yes	The whole Xhariep District Municipal Area was recently declared disaster area (2015 - 2016).	High	The District is an agricultural area	Low	Department of Agriculture in each Local Municipality.
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of High Priority Biomes	Yes	Grassland and Nama-Karoo Biomes (close to Kimberly and Aliwal North)	High	According to research, a large amount of the Grassland Biome will be lost.	Low	The plan might be available at a Provincial level. No policies in place for the District Municipality.
Biodiversity and Environment	Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems	Yes	There are some vulnerable ecosystems in Lestemeng Local Municipality Area.	High	0	Low	No biodiversity plan in place.
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems	Yes	Caledon River, Orange River, Gariep Dam.	High	People are building on wetlands.	Low	0
Human Health	Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity	Yes	Drought condition lead to food insecurity in the District Municipal Area.	High	There are 9.3 incidence per 1000 children.	Low	SASSA - social development programmes, soup kitchens and social grants. Department of Health - Dietetic services, health programmes. No research. People are poverty stricken due to unemployment. Despite all the programmes available, the need is still high.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	Roads are inaccessible to some rural farming areas.	High	Rural communities adapt to the surrounding areas over time.	Low	No plans or policies in place.
Water	Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts	Yes	Indicator title change: Increase in floods means no water treatment plants (oxidation ponds) will flood, therefore, polluting the surrounding environments, The quality of the effluent will be affected. Negative impact on aquatic ecosystems, irrigation and water borne diseases downstream. There is poor waste management infrastructure and low capacity in the District Municipal Area.	High	The average Green Drop score of the District Municipal Area is 19.93%. Letsemeng Local Municipality is 0%. Mohokare Local Municipality is 58.60%. Kopanong Local Municipality is 1.20%.	Low	Limited finance to upgrade infrastructure. Human resources are limited. No research. Policy does not address challenges. Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP) is available but has not been implemented.
Water	Increased fish mortality	Yes	We do find fish in Gariep Dam as well as most dams in the District Municipal Area.	High	Gariep Dam Bethulie Hatchery Koffiefontein Fish Farm Farriesmith Fish Farm Pietrusburg Fish Farm Zastron Fish Farm Springphontien Fish Farm	Low	Research done and policies are in place by the Department ofAgriculture.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Xhariep (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Xhariep (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Xhariep (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Xhariep (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.