West Rand

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Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the West Rand District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
West Rand District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1OtaSmrolGO6ZnqMdAwKH40O_e5dIHWOuGlUZs1Z66AU/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
West Rand District Municipality CC Response Plan20162,668WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rra0dNeU9tN1ZsZ1k&resourcekey=0-6HtdwutlLKuJ8gsCB34B-w&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout West Rand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout West Rand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout West Rand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in West Rand (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in West Rand using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureIncreased risks to livestockYesWeeds, invasive plants and bush encroachment all lead to a reduction of grass, which is main food source for livestock.HighLots of farms are producing livestock commercially, on a small scale and on a subsistence basis (e.g. pigs, chicken, cattle, sheep and goats).LowThere is legislation in place at national level dealing with encroachment by bush, weeds and invasive plants species.
There are Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) Projects and
landcare projects at a provincial level.
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesGrassland growing for livestock farming.HighLoss of grasslands to bushveld.LowDEA Provincial
Human HealthHealth impacts from increased storm eventsYesFor example, informal settlements. Storm events occurred in September 2015 and January 2016. In 2014 floods occurred in informal settlements as people had settled below flood lines or in wetland areas. There is poor stormwater drainage in the urban area.HighSTATS SA indicates that an estimated 25% of the population lives in flood zone, mainly in informal settlements. Informal settlements are unplanned and in most cases they do not adhere to 100 year flood line.LowSector Departments, Disaster Management Centres, Councillors and Ward Committees.
South African Weather Service for weather forecasting.
Housing Department to relocate people (only on intention).
Research exists.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesIn the entire District Municipal Area.
No services are provided in informal settlements.		HighHouseholds living in informal dwellings account for 25.33% of the total number of households.LowThere are some services to informal dwellings but they are limited.
Ventilated toilets.
DMC.
Waste Removal.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in West Rand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in West Rand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in West Rand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in West Rand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References