Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Area is suitable due to soil type and climate conditions.|
Spinach, cabbage and potato.
|High||Both subsistence (livelihoods) and commercial||Low||Amajuba DM and other local municipalities.|
Low capacity more especially for subsistence farmers.
This is a priority indicator.
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||All three local municipalities more especially Emadlangeni as it is known for beef farming||High||Beef produced brings in income for the District and provides jobs and sustains livelihoods.||Low||Low capacity for subsistence farmers in particular. |
Climate change will negatively affect livestock farming.
Grassland is threatened by savannah encroachment, grassland is vital for animal feed.
This is a priority indicator.
ADM Agriculture Master Plan.
Livestock support is provided through coordination efforts but livestock itself is not funded,
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||In all three municipalities||High||About 35.9% of households are dependent on agricultural services/activities||Low||There is a need to promote LED especially in rural areas.|
There is a need to provide and teach about drought resistant varieties in terms of grains and vegetables.
This is a priority indicator.
DARD (Food security programs)
DRDLR (plans to enhance livelihoods)
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Grassland (Nkangala grassland project in Emadlangeni)|
The Amajuba DM is largely dominated by grasslands.
|High||The District Municipality is covered by grassland however this biome will be replaced by savanna.||Low||There are policies and plans in place but implementation could be improved.|
Permitting system to regulate development in biomes.
Capacitating communities, farmers on biodiversity.
Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife,
Amajuba Biodiversity Sector Plan
NGOs- Endangered Wildlife Trust
Some Mgundeni communities are involved in an ongoing conservation stewardship programme.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems||Yes||Nkangala grassland is endangered.|
Paulpietersburg moist grassland-vulnerable.
Endangered crane species- blue crane, grey crowned crane, wattled crane.
|High||The identified species are classified under TOPS as per NEMBA.||Low||Scientific research is conducted|
Policies such as NEMBA are implemented.
There is external funding from NGOs to implement conservation programmes within the District.
Continuous awareness campaigns could be improved.
Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, WWF, KZN EDTEA,
Amajuba Biodiversity Sector Plan,
Birdlife SA, Endangered Wildlife Trust, SANBI
Some Mgundeni communities are involved in existing biodiversity agreements for the protection of ecosystems such as wetlands.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||Loss of high value/potential agricultural land to residential in all three local municipalities.|
Alien species invasion.
|High||Land-use changes due to high urbanisation and invasion of alien species on natural habitats. Veld Fires due to high fuel in grasslands.||Low||There are regulatory tools in place to deal with veldfires and invasive alien species.|
There are programmes to capacitate communities and farmers on veld management through the Biodiversity Stewardship Programmes.
There are, however, internal conflicts with communities regarding the implementation of some projects.
KZN Agricultural Development, COGTA Spatial Planning, LM- SDF, ADM SDF, KZN EDTEA
Communities are still located in highly sensitive areas such as wetlands.
The Amajuba DM has not benefited from the LAS Programme.
|Human Health||Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis)||Yes||In all three local municipalities. Buffalo Flats.|
Due to extensive heat and rainfall, groundwater may be contaminated due to the sinking of graves. More research needs to be done on the impacts of contamination of groundwater from graves.
|High||Contamination of boreholes/artesian wells by pit latrines and cemeteries etc. The increase in communicable diseases is due to floods.||Low||Department of Health,|
Water analysis research has been done at a District level.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||In all three local municipalities||High||Loss of houses, loss of goods, exposure to health risks.|
Existing housing backlog can delay community from benefiting from RDP housing.
Temporary housing, wendy houses by PDMC.
SDF and IDP and GIS,
Department of Human Settlement
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||In all three local municipalities||High||Most of the population resides in the NLM with ELM and DLM having smaller populations numbers. Emergency resources are mostly located in the NLM.||Low||DOT,|
Local municipalities, land-use schemes
Need to create AgriParks/Villages
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||2015/16 drought,|
In all three local municipalities.
The accumulation of silt at the bottom of dams decrease their capacity.
Water storage (unpurified water) is a problem. If the current sources could be excavated deeper (by removing sand and silt) it could increase the storage capacity of such sources.
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||All three local municipalities,|
Ageing water infrastructure
|High||A total of 4.77% of households are without rubbish disposal thus during floods, the debris flows into stormwater drains and blocks them. |
Ageing infrastructure leads to frequent pipe bursts contributing to high water loss and sewer spillages.
The different sewer systems within the District are affected when there are floods e.g. septic tanks get fuller quickly resulting in more frequent desludging.
|Low||LM's Infrastructure Plan,|
Poor stormwater management systems.
Aging sanitation infrastructure needs to be repaired or replaced.
Proper operation and maintenance of sanitation facilities is needed.
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.