iLembe

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the iLembe District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
iLembe District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation	2018	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pVUOXjQ2kL3kkamT15EtEJW1_rm8O3pGVy3RkDnmTtk/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>
iLembe District Municipality CC Response Plan	2017	10,725	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0YmNGSF9fcll4QUk&resourcekey=0-EgCij6W1t5ajmU2I82SqyA&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>
iLembe District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation	2018	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/11nHoWqkEBCqxNC0-l1q7_C7HT9KGCI2qnz9WGxnPRsc/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout iLembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout iLembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout iLembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in iLembe (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in iLembe using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production	Yes	The iLembe community has prioritised sugarcane production over maize production. This has compromised subsistence farming since farmers plant sugarcane for commercial purposes. Maize is important at a subsistence level in iLembe DM, but it does not have potential to overtake sugarcane production at a commercial level. The quantities of maize produced in the iLembe DM do not qualify for the establishment of maize processing mills. Additionally, dry beans are grown at a subsistence level.	High	Maize is a staple food and contributes to eradicating poverty and improving food security.	Low	There is a need for a policy and resources that support subsistence farming. The community needs to be educated on the costs of substituting maize with sugarcane.
Agriculture	Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)	Yes	Existing production of nuts, amadumbe and sweet potato in the Maphumulo, Ndwedwe and Mandeni LMs. Cabbage and tomatoes are also grown. Macadamia nuts could potentially be produced at a commercial level in the iLembe DM. The topography of the iLembe DM is challenging and therefore the District should promote the growth of fruit trees.	High	It is important for the local economy and livelihoods.	Low	Qwabe Kanini Farm Department of Agriculture and the Department of Economic Development- Karibu Farm.
Agriculture	Reduced food security	Yes	Sugarcane has been prioritised over other crops, which has increased food insecurity. Furthermore, people are moving back to the rural areas, but the land is no longer productive which affects food security.	High	As per the statistics and local knowledge	Low	0
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of High Priority Biomes	Yes	Due to development in KwaDukuza, Mandeni (coastal belt), and grassland and savanna in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo. Erosion is an issue. High temperatures are favouring invasive alien species.	High	The Savanna Biome is progressively replacing grasslands and coastal forests. Priority Biomes are being replaced by invasive alien species and development.	Low	Ezemvelo Wildlife, KwaDukuza, Ilembe, Mandeni Local Municipalities EDTEA, DEA, DAFF There is an existing Low Emissions Development Strategy and a climate change strategy for KwaDukuza Local Municipality. KwaDukuza Open Space Management Plan. Biodiversity Sector Plan - iLembe DM Recent data should be used to develop a status quo which can be used to devise targets.
Biodiversity and Environment	Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems	Yes	Human activities and climate change in the Mandeni coastal area. Increased alien species due to high temperatures that destroy ecosystems	High	Alien plant invasions. Uncontrolled rural development i.e. human settlements; agriculture.	Low	EDTEA, DEA, Ezemvelo. Mandeni, Ndwedwe, Maphumulo Local Municipalities. iLembe District Municipality. Biodiversity Sector Plan. KwaDukuza Open Space Management Plan and maps. There is still a need to develop an invasive alien species control programme/plan.
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems	Yes	Changes to rainfall and increasing drought. Invasive alien species. Increased sand mining, resulting in sedimentation. River crossings, watercourse crossings and dams are likely to be affected by changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures.	High	Poorer communities extract water directly from Umvoti River while farmers use water from the same river for irrigation purposes. Mvoti River is also used for sand mining, most of which is illegal.	Low	EDTEA, Department of Water and Sanitation, LM's and District. Draft iLembe Wetlands Strategy. Lower Umdloti Catchment Forum, Simunye Forum, Coastwatch KZN (NGO), Lower Umvoti Catchment Forum, iLembe Coastal Committee. The wetland study is being conducted by ICLEI. There is a decline in the ability of wetlands to absorb, hold and purify water and store carbon.
Human Health	Increased heat stress	Yes	Experienced high temperature in Maphumulo, Mandeni, Lindelani and KwaDukuza Local Municipalities	High	Found in all four LMs in the District.	Low	SAWS is limited at KwaDukuza. DM Plan. There is no budget, research or policy.
Human Health	Increased air pollution	Yes	Existing polluting companies in KwaDukuza and Mandeni	High	SAPPI (Mandeni and KwaDukuza)	Low	SAPPI. Draft Air Quality Management Plan available but it needs to be strengthened. No financial capacity.
Human Health	Increased Occupational health problems	Yes	EPWP workers. Farm workers e.g. on sugar cane farms. Contractors e.g. roads	High	In all four local municipalities.	Low	No research, policy, institutional support, finances or community capacity. Ignorance. Induction before employment is needed. Staff rotation versus hours of work
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings	Yes	Existing and increasing number of informal dwellings in Mandeni and KwaDukuza. Traditional dwellings in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe.	High	63% of the District municipal area is under traditional authority. Informal dwellings in Mandeni and KwaDukuza.	Low	DOHS. LM's. There is an existing policy, however, institutional support and community capacity is lacking. Additionally, financial resources are limited.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	80% of roads in the District are gravel. Thus, in extreme rain conditions some areas are inaccessible.	High	Mostly rural, rapidly urbanising.	Low	Varies according to local municipality.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas	Yes	People migrate from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to KwaDukuza and Mandeni as well as from other Districts. Including other neighbouring DMs and countries.	High	Lack of opportunities and skills development for youth in rural areas. People are also returning to rural areas, but the land has become unproductive.	Low	Special programmes in municipalities (OSS). There is a need for rural economy rejuvenation. Insufficient infrastructure.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased risk of wildfires	Yes	No firefighting capacity in Maphumulo.	High	Ndwedwe and Maphumulo LMs are more at risk. The lack of capacity escalates risk and status of fire. The risk was also higher during drought.	Low	No firefighting capacity. No fire protection association. No formal agreements between municipalities. No funds. There is community capacity.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Decreased income from tourism	Yes	Erosion of beaches. Illegal sand mining affects estuaries. Redirection of rivers results in destruction of properties along the rivers and also causes damage to roads.	High	Tourism is one of the key sectors in the economy and is one of the largest employers. Coastal infrastructure damage results in spillages on beaches.	Low	Alternate energy sources. KwaDukuza has policies in place i.e. Green Building Guidelines.
Water	Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts	Yes	Mandeni River - SAPPI related effluent. Illegal connections are affecting water quality and municipal revenue	High	42.70% (2009) 82.82% (2013)	Low	Wastewater treatment works need refurbishment. The sewer system is inadequate (e.g. pit latrines, septic tanks in informal settlements and areas with high water tables).
Water	Less water available for irrigation and drinking	Yes	ILembe has experienced a decrease in water availability. Poor availability and leakages has also led to an increase in illegal water connections. Illegal drilling of boreholes, illegal connections to municipal bulk infrastructure (stormwater into sewer), and illegal connections of water meters.	High	1921 - No alternative 1984 - No alternative 1965 - Sources of water 2015 to 2017 - Sources (Boreholes). Illegal connections are affecting water quality and municipal revenue.	Low	Provincial Drought Management Plan. District Management Plan. Local Municipality Plan. Water harvesting. Water by-laws

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in iLembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in iLembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in iLembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in iLembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.