Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||The iLembe community has prioritised sugarcane production over maize production. This has compromised subsistence farming since farmers plant sugarcane for commercial purposes. Maize is important at a subsistence level in iLembe DM, but it does not have potential to overtake sugarcane production at a commercial level. The quantities of maize produced in the iLembe DM do not qualify for the establishment of maize processing mills. Additionally, dry beans are grown at a subsistence level.||High||Maize is a staple food and contributes to eradicating poverty and improving food security.||Low||There is a need for a policy and resources that support subsistence farming.|
The community needs to be educated on the costs of substituting maize with sugarcane.
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Existing production of nuts, amadumbe and sweet potato in the Maphumulo, Ndwedwe and Mandeni LMs.|
Cabbage and tomatoes are also grown.
Macadamia nuts could potentially be produced at a commercial level in the iLembe DM.
The topography of the iLembe DM is challenging and therefore the District should promote the growth of fruit trees.
|High||It is important for the local economy and livelihoods.||Low||Qwabe Kanini Farm Department of Agriculture and the Department of Economic Development- Karibu Farm.|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Sugarcane has been prioritised over other crops, which has increased food insecurity. Furthermore, people are moving back to the rural areas, but the land is no longer productive which affects food security.||High||As per the statistics and local knowledge||Low||0|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Due to development in KwaDukuza, Mandeni (coastal belt), and grassland and savanna in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo. Erosion is an issue. High temperatures are favouring invasive alien species.||High||The Savanna Biome is progressively replacing grasslands and coastal forests. Priority Biomes are being replaced by invasive alien species and development.||Low||Ezemvelo Wildlife, KwaDukuza, Ilembe, Mandeni Local Municipalities|
EDTEA, DEA, DAFF
There is an existing Low Emissions Development Strategy and a climate change strategy for KwaDukuza Local Municipality.
KwaDukuza Open Space Management Plan.
Biodiversity Sector Plan - iLembe DM
Recent data should be used to develop a status quo which can be used to devise targets.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems||Yes||Human activities and climate change in the Mandeni coastal area. Increased alien species due to high temperatures that destroy ecosystems||High||Alien plant invasions.|
Uncontrolled rural development i.e. human settlements; agriculture.
|Low||EDTEA, DEA, Ezemvelo.|
Mandeni, Ndwedwe, Maphumulo Local Municipalities. iLembe District Municipality.
Biodiversity Sector Plan.
KwaDukuza Open Space Management Plan and maps.
There is still a need to develop an invasive alien species control programme/plan.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems||Yes||Changes to rainfall and increasing drought. Invasive alien species. Increased sand mining, resulting in sedimentation. River crossings, watercourse crossings and dams are likely to be affected by changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures.||High||Poorer communities extract water directly from Umvoti River while farmers use water from the same river for irrigation purposes.|
Mvoti River is also used for sand mining, most of which is illegal.
|Low||EDTEA, Department of Water and Sanitation, LM's and District.|
Draft iLembe Wetlands Strategy.
Lower Umdloti Catchment Forum, Simunye Forum, Coastwatch KZN (NGO), Lower Umvoti Catchment Forum, iLembe Coastal Committee.
The wetland study is being conducted by ICLEI.
There is a decline in the ability of wetlands to absorb, hold and purify water and store carbon.
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||Experienced high temperature in Maphumulo, Mandeni, Lindelani and KwaDukuza Local Municipalities||High||Found in all four LMs in the District.||Low||SAWS is limited at KwaDukuza.|
There is no budget, research or policy.
|Human Health||Increased air pollution||Yes||Existing polluting companies in KwaDukuza and Mandeni||High||SAPPI (Mandeni and KwaDukuza)||Low||SAPPI.|
Draft Air Quality Management Plan available but it needs to be strengthened.
No financial capacity.
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||EPWP workers. Farm workers e.g. on sugar cane farms. Contractors e.g. roads||High||In all four local municipalities.||Low||No research, policy, institutional support, finances or community capacity.|
Induction before employment is needed.
Staff rotation versus hours of work
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Existing and increasing number of informal dwellings in Mandeni and KwaDukuza.|
Traditional dwellings in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe.
|High||63% of the District municipal area is under traditional authority.|
Informal dwellings in Mandeni and KwaDukuza.
There is an existing policy, however, institutional support and community capacity is lacking. Additionally, financial resources are limited.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||80% of roads in the District are gravel. Thus, in extreme rain conditions some areas are inaccessible.||High||Mostly rural, rapidly urbanising.||Low||Varies according to local municipality.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||People migrate from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to KwaDukuza and Mandeni as well as from other Districts. Including other neighbouring DMs and countries.||High||Lack of opportunities and skills development for youth in rural areas. People are also returning to rural areas, but the land has become unproductive.||Low||Special programmes in municipalities (OSS). There is a need for rural economy rejuvenation. Insufficient infrastructure.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased risk of wildfires||Yes||No firefighting capacity in Maphumulo.||High||Ndwedwe and Maphumulo LMs are more at risk.|
The lack of capacity escalates risk and status of fire.
The risk was also higher during drought.
|Low||No firefighting capacity.|
No fire protection association.
No formal agreements between municipalities.
There is community capacity.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Decreased income from tourism||Yes||Erosion of beaches.|
Illegal sand mining affects estuaries.
Redirection of rivers results in destruction of properties along the rivers and also causes damage to roads.
|High||Tourism is one of the key sectors in the economy and is one of the largest employers.|
Coastal infrastructure damage results in spillages on beaches.
|Low||Alternate energy sources.|
KwaDukuza has policies in place i.e. Green Building Guidelines.
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Mandeni River - SAPPI related effluent.|
Illegal connections are affecting water quality and municipal revenue
|Low||Wastewater treatment works need refurbishment.|
The sewer system is inadequate (e.g. pit latrines, septic tanks in informal settlements and areas with high water tables).
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||ILembe has experienced a decrease in water availability. Poor availability and leakages has also led to an increase in illegal water connections. Illegal drilling of boreholes, illegal connections to municipal bulk infrastructure (stormwater into sewer), and illegal connections of water meters.||High||1921 - No alternative|
1984 - No alternative
1965 - Sources of water
2015 to 2017 - Sources (Boreholes).
Illegal connections are affecting water quality and municipal revenue.
|Low||Provincial Drought Management Plan.|
District Management Plan.
Local Municipality Plan.
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.