Draft Climate Change Plan
File Name | Year | Size (MB) | Type | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Cetshwayo District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1An8ZaXbnai8bH3qiVPfxBZ9l06GFKhVZg7YPy98-hq0/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| King Cetshwayo District Municipality CC Response Plan | 2017 | 13,126 | WORD | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0YmlXTEFZQlRTSEE&resourcekey=0-E6aOaHyYM2UrPnfijjXOYA&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| King Cetshwayo District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18JWfVpo6tfsRSZyE0en4VPd74odTPQEv11065ZGWM58/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Yes | Currently, there is no commercial maize production happening on the areas in the maps but there is small scale farming. | High | Maize is important for livelihoods and also the informal economy within the District. Water availability is important for grain production in the District. | Low | Department of Agriculture. There are programs in place for other commodities but not maize. Support programs are not responding to climate change. |
| Agriculture | Change in Sugarcane Production | Yes | uMhlathuze uMlalazi Mthonjaneni uMfolozi | High | Most of the farmers are leaving sugarcane farming and are venturing into macadamia nuts. | Low | There is low adaptive capacity particularly with small scale farmers as they are not provided with support. Department of Agriculture, Farm owners (small and large scale), Huletts, Local municipalities - uMlalazi LM, Private sector. |
| Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Yes | Mthonjaneni LM - citrus fruit, UMlalazi LM - citrus fruit, UMhlathuze LM - citrus fruit. Mfolozi-All fruits Dominant fruits in the District include mango, banana, oranges and avocados. | High | Majority is privately owned farms. Drought incidences have impacted on fruit production in the District as fruit require extensive water. | Low | Department of Agriculture |
| Agriculture | Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.) | Yes | Entire District especially Nkandla (e.g. beetroot, butternut, onion, carrots and tomatoes) | High | It is very important as it speaks to the schools' nutrition programme. It is also important for food security. | Low | uThungulu Fresh Produce; Ethekwini Fresh Produce; RASET; Department of Agriculture; SMME's; The District is currently busy with an agricultural development plan, One home, one garden project. Agricultural advisors |
| Agriculture | Increased areas for commercial plantations | Yes | Entire District | High | Plantations take up too much water and impact on the rest of the District High for private farmers/corporate. Low for local municipalities. | Low | Mondi, SAPPI, RBM, Siyaqhubeka, Transnet. |
| Agriculture | Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth | Yes | Entire District- Locust, snails, spiders, mole, rodents, frogs, fall army worms, ants and house snakes are increasing in the District and impacting on agriculture. | High | The District currently has an influx of pests. | Low | Pest controllers, Local agriculture office. |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Entire District. Poultry is also impacted | High | It's very important as every household on traditional land has livestock e.g. goats, pigs, cows, etc. Water is polluted from industrial activities and impacts on drinking water for livestock. Due to the lack of animal feed in the District, animals end up on roads and the beaches looking for food, this causes soil erosion on the beaches. The District does not have an animal pound. | Low | Traditional leaders, Local municipalities, Local communities, Livestock farmers Department of Agriculture, The District is currently busy with an Agricultural Development Plan that will incorporate live stock. |
| Agriculture | Reduced food security | Yes | Droughts and floods have affected food security for commercial as well as subsistence. | High | 36.9% of households are involved in Agricultural activities. Food prices have increased in the District. | Low | Stock farmers |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of High Priority Biomes | Yes | uMfolozi, uMlalazi and City of uMhlathuze LMs. | High | Savannah takes over the coastal belt. Bush encroachment in grassland is occurring. Tropical rainforest and natural rainforests are being affected by acid rains. | Low | SANBI, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, EMFs, SDFs, SEAs, CMPs, LUMs and LGSP, provide for regulatory framework for managing priority areas. RBIDZ GTOs |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems | Yes | DEA LG's has a strategy which identifies four local municipalities: uMhlathuze, uMfolozi, uMlalazi and Mthonjaneni as having critically endangered and vulnerable ecosystems | High | The entire District Municipal Area is mapped with threatened grass, forest and wetland ecosystems. | Low | SANBI, DEA, All local municipalities and the KCDM, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, EMFs, SDFs, SEAs, CMPs, LUMs and LGSP, provide for regulatory framework for managing priority areas. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change | Yes | Industrialisation and constant development impact of the environment in the entire District. The District is of national importance. Industries impact on water quality as well as biodiversity and environment. Mine rehabilitation system has negative impact on the environment. | High | Activities transforming natural habitats include: port, industrial, agriculture, human settlements, infrastructure provision, mining (e.g. Ironox, Fairbreeze Mine, RBM, coal mining, RBIDZ, etc.) | Low | COGTA (traditional authorities) and DEA, DEDTEA, Local Municipalities and the District Municipality. EMFs, SDFs, SEAs, CMPs, LUMs and LGSP, provide for regulatory framework for managing priority areas. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems | Yes | Wetlands are currently either dry or semi-dry due to the current drought across the entire district. Water quantity. Water quality is equally compromised. | High | The entire coastal belt of the District is on a coastal aquifer (wetlands). Specifically the uMhlathuze, uMfolozi and uMlalazi local municipalities. | Low | Municipalities, Ingonyama Trust Board, Traditional Leadership, DEA, DWS, DEDTEA, DMR, Business as well as Agriculture and Forestry. EMFs, SDFs, SEAs, CMPs, LUMs and LGSP, provide for regulatory framework for managing priority areas. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Marine and Benthic Ecosystems | Yes | KCDM being a coastal district, specifically in three local municipalities. There is also evidence of an eroding coastline. | High | Three local municipalities in the District have a vulnerable coastline. There is also an extensive area that is below 5m above sea level. | Low | Currently, there are District and Coastal Management Plans. KZN Provincial government has a vulnerability coastal index tool/portal. Functional coastal working groups. uMhlathuze Local Municipality has adopted coastal setback lines. Stakeholders include: DEA, DEDTEA, TNPA/IDZ, SAMSA, local municipalities and the District Municipality, DAFF and SAPS. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on estuary ecosystems | Yes | Increased temperatures and poor water quality have resulted in algae. Estuaries are the breeding ground for fisheries and when they are impacted there is biodiversity loss. | High | Estuaries within the District are polluted with sewage and general waste. | Low | Green Drop scores, Estuary Management Plans. Stakeholders include: Traditional Leaders, DWS, Ezemvelo, DEA, TNPA, local municipalities and the District Municipality. |
| Coastal and Marine | Impacts on Coastal Livelihoods | Yes | All local municipalities along the coast have fishing communities (i.e. subsistence fishing). There is also biodiversity loss. | High | This is the only source of food security for subsistence fishermen. Fishing is also a prominent sport in the District. | Low | Marine Bill and Small Fisheries Policy. Stakeholders include: DAFF and SAP. |
| Coastal and Marine | Loss of land due to sea level rise | Yes | There is evidence of coastal erosion in the District. Coastal tourism is dwindling. Loss of sand dunes. | High | The three coastal local municipalities are affected because a significant area within the District Municipality is lower than 5m above sea level. | Low | Efforts to implement coastal defences such as geobags. Efforts and implementation of coastal setbacks. Stakeholders include: DEA, DEDTEA, Local Municipalities, the District Municipality and Traditional Authorities. |
| Coastal and Marine | Increased damage to property from sea level rise | Yes | Lifeguard houses, coastal recreational facilities, infrastructure, tourist attractions are slumping into the sea. | High | Unfunded mandates to implement coastal defences. No research and data available. A majority of the coastal area does not have a coastal set back to inform planning along the coast. | Low | Ports inability to replenish beaches. Budget for defences. Stakeholders include: Public Works, COGTA, DEDTEA, TNPA, Local Municipalities and the District Municipality. |
| Human Health | Health impacts from increased storm events | Yes | uMhlathuze Local Municipality has experienced increased storm events. All local municipalities. | High | Allocation of land by Traditional Authorities (lack of awareness). Houses are built along the floodplain areas. | Low | Financial constraints. Amakhosi owning the land (lack of cooperation between traditional authorities and Government) |
| Human Health | Increased heat stress | Yes | Recently experienced high temperatures about 38 degrees Celsius (these have never happened before). | High | Humidity is high and labour capacity is decreased. Heat. Pit fires. | Low | There is communication from departments to the community on early warnings. Policy and SOPs. Community capacity. Not all stakeholders have access to information from the Health Department on heat related illnesses. |
| Human Health | Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and blackflies | Yes | High levels of mosquitoes and ticks. | High | There is always one case of tick bite fever each month. If a house is abandoned for two weeks, there are chances of getting sand flies. | Low | Measure are in place to control malaria. Clinics and Medical centres. Policy in place. |
| Human Health | Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis) | Yes | The District Municipality is in close proximity to neighbouring municipalities that have high numbers of waterborne diseases cases. Listeriosis and hepatitis are water related | High | From the neighbouring municipalities. uMfolozi River. Insufficient awareness on environmental related issues. A large percent of the District is rural. Shortage of health services like ambulances and closer clinics. | Low | Policy (National e.g. Acts) Community Capacity. Institutional support - Joint Operational Committees (JOCs), District Health Department, Province and the National Department. Joint Operation Committees (JOCs) are formed when there is a high cholera outbreak. |
| Human Health | Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity | Yes | The “Child under 5 years severe acute malnutrition case fatality rate” (that is children under five years who died from acute malnutrition) for King Cetshwayo District Municipal Area was 8.4 % during the 2015/16 period. | High | 0 | Low | Malnutrition (acute and severe) Food chain affected Assessments need to be conducted. |
| Human Health | Increased air pollution | Yes | The City of uMhlathuze Local Municipality was rated as being highly impacted by air pollution by the National Department. Also, emissions from informal charcoal makers. | High | There is high industrial activity in the City of uMhlathuze Local Municipality. Dust emanates from unpaved roads. Burning of refuse waste in rural areas. | Low | Policies are in place (Licenses, AQMP, Schedule Trade Permit) Community capacity, awareness and clean-up campaign. Chemical sampling by EHP. Monitoring stations in rural areas. Institutional support (provincial air quality officer, National Air Quality Act). More studies linking air quality and health issues need to be implemented. The District is in the process of gazetting a Bylaw to control emitters. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Loss of industrial and labour productivity | Yes | Industries include (but not limited to): Foskor, RBCT, Exxaro, Mondi, Isizinda Aluminium, South 32, IVS, etc. | High | There are more than seven large industries within the District. The District is a large industrial area that also has mines. | Low | There are no mechanisms in place |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Yes | Extreme weather events result in floods, emissions, fire, communicable diseases, soil erosion, etc. Crime, illegal mining of sand and waste management in rural areas. | High | Lack of health facilities (close by). Lack of maintenance of stormwater drainage systems Lack of land-use management Lack of waste management Lack of education/awareness - structures built on floodplains. | Low | Institutions - District Municipality. Policies drafted and researched by the District. There is a lack of funding. There is no research being done. Not enough community capacity and awareness. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased risk of wildfires | Yes | The District is also exposed to peat fires and underground fires in forests (Mondi Plantations). Sugarcane fields. Run-away fires. | High | Very high due to extreme heat and man-made fires, which are also linked to climate change. The peat fires are due to human activities such as bee-harvesting | Low | Institution - Rural / Metro no longer providing fire services Policies drafted and researched by the District. Funding is provided by the District. Research being done by the District and the rural / metro. Community capacity and awareness by the District. |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | Illegal dumping increasing pollution. Industrial effluent discharged into rivers. There are not enough landfills. | High | The Green Drop Scores are: City of uMhlathuze Local Municipality = 84.9% King Cetshwayo District Municipality = 26.08% | Low | Policy - Bylaws available but no enforcement and the Environmental Management Act. Finance - no budget set aside. Community - not in place. Institutional - not in place. |
| Cross Cutting | Lack of financial resources to respond to climate change | Yes | Port Operations | High | Shipwrecks, breaks in sea outfall pipeline and oil spillages. | Low | There are no spill contingencies. There are no standard operating procedures with affected role players. Stakeholders include: SAMSA, TNPA, Disaster Management - COGTA, Local Municipalities and the District Municipality. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.