Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the uMgungundlovu District Municipality.
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Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout uMgungundlovu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout uMgungundlovu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout uMgungundlovu over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in uMgungundlovu (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in uMgungundlovu using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureReduced food securityYesAll seven local municipalitiesHigh25.75% of households are involved in agricultural activities in the DistrictLowHouseholds. DARD has developed a set of agricultural land potential categories across KZN that identify high value agricultural land for food production There is ongoing soil research, infromation and classification
Human HealthHealth impacts from increased storm eventsYesAll seven local municipalities. Increased storm events are predicted to increaseHighCommunities have located in floodplains and close to drainage lines. These communities are identified in the District's Climate Change Strategy, but this is now out of date.LowMunicipalities
Communities. A flood risk sensitivity map has been developed and included in the District's EMF. A resilience project includes a focus on vulnerable communities in the District.
Lack of updated infromation could limit the Municipalitys adaptive capacity.
URP is specific to certian areas and therefore other areas could be vulnerable.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesAll seven local municipalities. Populations in urban areas are growing, placing pressure on infrastructureHighThere is still large differences in services and facilities between the rural and urban, however there has been economic and population growth in rural areasLowMunucipalities,
Communities,
A number of rural development projects are proposed in the IDP.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased risk of wildfiresYesAll seven local municipalities. High fire risk due to timber plantations, poor management of open spaces, and poor household safety practicesHighExtreme Veldfire riskLowFire detection and surpression is available for commercial farmers. The District has to invest in building fire stations, purchasing fire equipment and software infrastructure.
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYesAll seven local municipalities. River quality in the District is variable. Quality is affected by land degradation, poor sewerage and stormwater management, intensive agriculture, and effluent from industry. Msunduzi River quality is deteriorating.Industrial activities sending raw effluent into streams in areas near Sobantu.High39.6% Green Drop Score in 2011LowUmgeni Water
WSA
Communities.
The most vulnerable communities in terms of water quality have been identified through the Climate Change Strategy. These communities have poor access to sanitation and rely on the direct abstraction of water from rivers. Reduced Water Quality is identified as a key environmental issue in the EMF. A water quality sensitivity map has been developed in the EMF. An infrastructure assessment of Wastewater Treatment Plants has been conducted and is included in the Climate Change Strategy.
GCF6 Project-SANBI
The information and data on water quality is available but there appears to be little or no interventional support, finance, capacity and community to address challenges.
WaterLess water available for irrigation and drinkingYesDrought has been experienced in recent years in seven local municipalitiesHighUnsure how many years of drought in the last 20 years but likely to be between 2-7 incidences but the severity has been very high especially the current drought.LowUmgeni Water
WSA
Communities. The District has responded to the drought by exploring groundwater options through borehole drilling.
DWS.
UMDM and Umsunduzi are implementing a water saving mechanism and doing a lot of public awareness.
The sustainability of interventions is not clear.
The drought tends to catch municipalities unaware and unprepared.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in uMgungundlovu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in uMgungundlovu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in uMgungundlovu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in uMgungundlovu (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References