Draft Climate Change Plan
|uMgungundlovu District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation||2018||12,980||Power Point||Download|
|uMgungundlovu District Municipality CC Summary Report||2017||11,247||WORD||Download|
|uMgungundlovu District Municipality Climate Change Response Strategy and Plan||2013||10,531||Download|
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||All seven local municipalities||High||25.75% of households are involved in agricultural activities in the District||Low||Households. DARD has developed a set of agricultural land potential categories across KZN that identify high value agricultural land for food production There is ongoing soil research, infromation and classification|
|Human Health||Health impacts from increased storm events||Yes||All seven local municipalities. Increased storm events are predicted to increase||High||Communities have located in floodplains and close to drainage lines. These communities are identified in the District's Climate Change Strategy, but this is now out of date.||Low||Municipalities |
Communities. A flood risk sensitivity map has been developed and included in the District's EMF. A resilience project includes a focus on vulnerable communities in the District.
Lack of updated infromation could limit the Municipalitys adaptive capacity.
URP is specific to certian areas and therefore other areas could be vulnerable.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||All seven local municipalities. Populations in urban areas are growing, placing pressure on infrastructure||High||There is still large differences in services and facilities between the rural and urban, however there has been economic and population growth in rural areas||Low||Munucipalities,|
A number of rural development projects are proposed in the IDP.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased risk of wildfires||Yes||All seven local municipalities. High fire risk due to timber plantations, poor management of open spaces, and poor household safety practices||High||Extreme Veldfire risk||Low||Fire detection and surpression is available for commercial farmers. The District has to invest in building fire stations, purchasing fire equipment and software infrastructure.|
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||All seven local municipalities. River quality in the District is variable. Quality is affected by land degradation, poor sewerage and stormwater management, intensive agriculture, and effluent from industry. Msunduzi River quality is deteriorating.Industrial activities sending raw effluent into streams in areas near Sobantu.||High||39.6% Green Drop Score in 2011||Low||Umgeni Water|
The most vulnerable communities in terms of water quality have been identified through the Climate Change Strategy. These communities have poor access to sanitation and rely on the direct abstraction of water from rivers. Reduced Water Quality is identified as a key environmental issue in the EMF. A water quality sensitivity map has been developed in the EMF. An infrastructure assessment of Wastewater Treatment Plants has been conducted and is included in the Climate Change Strategy.
The information and data on water quality is available but there appears to be little or no interventional support, finance, capacity and community to address challenges.
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Drought has been experienced in recent years in seven local municipalities||High||Unsure how many years of drought in the last 20 years but likely to be between 2-7 incidences but the severity has been very high especially the current drought.||Low||Umgeni Water|
Communities. The District has responded to the drought by exploring groundwater options through borehole drilling.
UMDM and Umsunduzi are implementing a water saving mechanism and doing a lot of public awareness.
The sustainability of interventions is not clear.
The drought tends to catch municipalities unaware and unprepared.
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.