Draft Climate Change Plan
|uMkhanyakude District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation||2018||12,980||Power Point||Download|
|uMkhanyakude District Municipality CC Response Plan||2017||13,726||WORD||Download|
|uMkhanyakude District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation||2018||12,980||Power Point||Download|
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Bayala and Makhathini. The issue of pests is experienced in other areas of the district as well.||High||0||Low||All stakeholders identified at 4,6 and 7|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems||Yes||The entire District more importantly Umhlabuyalingana, Mtubatuba and Jozini LM.||High||Decreased water levels in rivers and lakes.|
Disturbed wetlands due to drought.
Affects tourism and LED.
Negatively affects the livelihoods of the community harvesting natural resources.
|Low||Strategic Environmental Assessment,|
IMP - Isimangaliso
|Human Health||Health impacts from increased storm events||Yes||Umhlabuyalingana||High||Due to influx of people from neighbouring countries such as Mozambique and Swaziland.||Low||0|
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||The whole District||High||The 2011 Census stat was 18.89% for very young and very old but we believe it to be much higher.||Low||IDP's|
|Human Health||Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity||Yes||The whole District (livestock affected)||High||Due to drought caused by the lack of rain. About 16.3 cases of malnutrition.||Low||We don't have resources to manage drought.|
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||Farmers|
|Low||Lack of training and education.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||Extreme weather affects roads such as R618, electricity power lines and water treatment plants.||High||The N2, R618 and R22 are the main roads connecting the District to the rest of the country. The District lacks proper planning and this increases sensitivity to impacts on strategic infrastructure.||Low||There is no policy that speaks directly to climate change at the moment.|
Disaster Management Policy Framework.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||There is a high risk because we have mud houses, zinc, thatch roof and reed houses.||High||The material used makes the District vulnerable to extreme weather events.||Low||The district has relief material and Human Settlements does not have enough capacity to deal with the situation.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||The District is vast and there are isolated communities.||High||90% of the District is rural. There is a lack in land use management and building codes in traditional areas. There is poor planning and slow intervention.||Low||There is no policy in Integrated Settlement Planning and Rural Development.|
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Low levels of dams:|
|High||Difficulty in providing water for the people in the District water due to drought.||Low||Through interventions by departments together with the District there are short/medium-term projects to solve the long-term problem.|
There are plans for a reticulation project.
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||Around Mtubatuba (Town CBD)|
Jozini (main CBD)
|High||This happens mostly around informal settlements, villages and homesteads where they use septic tanks that end up full and not drained.||Low||Sanitation projects are being implemented by the District with assistance from the Department with a few beneficiaries at a time.|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.