Draft Climate Change Plan
|uThukela District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation||2018||12,980||Power Point||Download|
|uThukela District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation||2018||12,980||Power Point||Download|
|uThukela District Municipality CC Strategic Plan||2015||4,231||Download|
|uThukela District Municipality CC Summary Report||2017||10,931||WORD||Download|
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in fruit production||Yes||Colenso - strawberries|
Weenen - oranges
Collen Pass - pecan nuts
|High||In the past, rural households had fruit trees. But they are currently not grown, this could be due to insect infestation.||Low||There are no awareness campaigns. These are needed because there is currently no knowledge on pesticides administration.|
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Winterton - cabbage, potato|
Emmaus - cabbage and potato
Weenen - cabbage and pine nut
Colenso - cabbage and cauliflower
|High||Intercropping maize with other crops is not possible because of low rainfall.|
Drought is affecting household gardens.
|Low||There is a critical need for a shift towards prioritising irrigation.|
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Locust and snails in all local municipalities.||High||They pose threats, specifically to fruit.||Low||There is limited knowledge on pesticides.|
More awareness campaigns on pest exposure should be introduced.
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||Whole of uThukela||High||Communal livestock are vulnerable to fodder loss because of late rains and/or drought. Bush encroachment and the expansion of human settlements are also issues.||Low||They do not comply with grazing norms like carrying capacity and stocking rate. |
Bush encroachment is also affecting the amount of grazing land available.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||Traditional and informal settlements encroaching on grazing land (Driefontein).|
Roosboom- erosion, dongas are collapsing in the Ntabamhlophe, Bergville and Indaka area.
Wetland reduction in the Zakheni area (traditional settlements) during habitat leading to drying out.
|High||Loss of habitat is mainly due to heavy rains, floods and unsustainable development, overgrazing, soil erosion, veld fires and invasive plants.||Low||Landcare programmes and educational awareness programmes.|
Environmental protection and infra EPIP, Biodiversity stewardships and School Environmental Education Programmes.
Some funding is provided through Disaster, however it is not sufficient.
|Human Health||Health impacts from increased storm events||Yes||Flash floods in Ladysmith and Bergville. Bergville is also situated along the lightning belt.|
Ladysmith is situated along the Klipriver and the area is drowning due to the lack of infrastructure.
There are extreme hail storms in Estcourt.
|High||Even though the areas that are vulnerable to storms are partially populated, the District has high sensitivity because the Estcourt, Bergville and Ladysmith areas are highly affected by floods and hailstorms. ||Low||Community awareness campaign that educates on drowning and water borne diseases.|
There is inadequate funding.
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||In 2016, temperatures ranged between 35-38 degrees Celsius and in some instances temperatures ranged between 42-45 degrees Celsius.||High||26.34% of the population are the young and elderly.||Low||Increasing temperatures can result in exhaustion, heat stroke and stresses.|
Communities can be educated on initiatives that will help them adapt to the increasing temperatures. i.e. drinking plenty of water, planting of trees for shade, promoting natural ventilation in households as well as wearing hats and applying sunscreen.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||Sandlwana area- no road and electricity.|
Waaihoek, Mhlumayo, Greenpoint (Okhahlamba), Mahlutshana (ILL).
|High||Mostly a rural District.||Low||Road grading occurs on a quarterly basis.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased risk of wildfires||Yes||Drakensberg mountains due to dryness caused by increase in temperatures and negligence.|
Also in the Winterton, Bergville, Ladysmith and Indaka areas.
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Whole District.||High||35-80%||Low||There is a drought committee. Water restrictions and awareness campaigns are being implemented.|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.