Zululand

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Zululand District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
Zululand District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation	2018	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1KZ8Iicx3B766tswt2hx_HIcw_xEEWiOYfYnEXwRWzK0/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>
Zululand District Municipality CC Response Plan	2017	12,980	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z0REeDJmbUlpYWM&resourcekey=0-SgloRX4cf9ddEd1nhW21hA&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>
Zululand District Municipality CC Response Plan Presentation	2018	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1lIlBrbSm9misnf7l0ySPfxpNOjgscecLlkaOJvWHtDc/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Zululand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Zululand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Zululand over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Zululand (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Zululand using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production	Yes	There are existing maize plantations in the following areas: Pongola, Vryheid, Edumbe. There is commercial farming and subsistence farming.	High	Contributes to the economy. Sustains livelihoods. Reduces poverty levels.	Low	Scarcity of resources. Less access to market. Financial constraints. Afri-Forum and Agri-Forum as well as the Department of Agriculture and LED unit within the Zululand District Municipality.
Agriculture	Increased areas for commercial plantations	Yes	Commercial and subsistence farming in eDumbe and Vryheid	High	Rodvelt Planks Furniture	Low	No research or policy in place that we are aware of. No community capacity. Impala Water association Agri- Forum Afri Forum
Biodiversity and Environment	Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change	Yes	Ulundi, Nongoma, Vryheid and Pongola encounter invasion of agricultural land into settlements and dongas, de-urbanisation, etc. Illegal developments and informal settlements in Vryheid. Pongola - grassland invaded by alien invasive species. Ulundi - forestry has been replaced by human settlement. eDumbe - grassland has been replaced by alien species. Vryheid - Thala Game Reserve threatened by overgrazing.	High	Forests are being cleared for human settlements	Low	Settlement plans, Schemes, SDF's, IDPs, and Precinct Plans. traditional leadership, Ingonyama Trust, Cogta, DARD and municipal planning units. Alien Invasive project by EDTEA
Human Health	Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity	Yes	Recent droughts have impacted on food security.	High	The District has 18.4% malnutrition fatality cases rate	Low	Community Services provides subsistence (co-op) farmers with seeds. More effort is required to get underground water from springs and boreholes.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Loss of industrial and labour productivity	Yes	Industrial activities include: Sand mining, coal mining, blast mining, and a sugar mill in Pongola	High	Mining is a significant contributor to the economy and a significant employer.	Low	Lack of policies and enforcement by the municipalities to respond to mining impacts. No institutional support. Impacts of severe weather on damaged topsoil. No vegetation also results in communities being exposed to higher temperatures.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings	Yes	Mud houses and informal settlements. Thatched houses.	High	Exposure to fire and storm damage. Lightning results in loss of life. Buildings on floodlines. Windy areas impact on informal and traditional dwellings.	Low	Human Settlements Department, Town Planning Department. Awareness in rural areas is needed.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	Communities in deep rural areas lack infrastructure e.g. access roads, electricity, clean water etc.	High	Mostly rural	Low	Existing policies but lack of capacity to implement.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas	Yes	Migration to Ulundi, Johannesburg, Durban.	High	No job opportunities in rural areas. There is a lack of infrastructure as well.	Low	Agriculture sector requires improvements.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased risk of wildfires	Yes	Fires have been experienced	High	Across the District. Lack of awareness.	Low	Policies are existing but there is a lack of capacity to implement.
Water	Less water available for irrigation and drinking	Yes	There were drought incidences in 2015/16 in the following Local Municipalities: Abaqulusi, Ulundi, Nongoma, Pongola and Edumbe.	High	2015/16 Abaqulusi was affected the most.	Low	Provision of relief through water tankers. The District has systems and plans in place, but these are inadequate especially for the creation of new dams. Financial resources are also a challenge

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Zululand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Zululand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Zululand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Zululand (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.