Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||Small scale growing||High||Commercial and small scale production||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Potatoes, tomatoes and other crops - large scale growing. Reduced rainfall and water availability. Reliance on groundwater||High||0||Low||Lack of water for potatoes, more sustainable farming patterns|
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Introduction of new pests. Need for research in this area||High||0||Low||More research needs to be done on the types of pests|
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||Consider game farming and impacts on other sectors||High||0||Low||Research, breeding of resistance livestock|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Impact on oranges and maize. Water availability||High||0||Low||Research, crop suitability and explore resistance crops|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Loss of indigenous plant and animal species. Have specific identification of grasslands.||High||0||Low||Need for intensive capacity building workshops|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||0||High||Overgrazing and Land Use change a big issue||Low||Need for intensive capacity building workshops|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Loss of industrial and labour productivity||Yes||Mining, Agricultural Estuaries||High||Employment scarcity of food, economic spinoffs||Low||Funding, technical skills and research, stakeholder collaboration|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||Roads, rail and airport, bridges - low lying bridges.||High||Strategic situation of the district - economic hub of the province (economic reasons)||Low||Technical capacity, funding|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Informal dwellings vs Informal settlements. The district have informal dwellings and a low number of informal settlements. This needs to be taken into account. Impacts felt differently between urban and rural vulnerable groups.||High||Poor Development planning. High population service delivery backlog||Low||Lack of implementation of policies|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||Informal Settlements and need for services||High||Poverty, employment and population growth, need for employment||Low||Planning and finance|
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Standards at the bird sanctuary have deteriorated (PLK Municipality) Wastewater is discharged directly into the river where the birds feed.||High||0||Low||0|
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||The Blouberg area has been declared a Drought Disaster Area||High||0||Low||0|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.