Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Capricorn District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Capricorn District Municipality CC Response Plan20161,204WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B8W6Tw5QBaPDSkF3WXFmTHRGWHc&resourcekey=0-ufjuwB2oIMMCcBDOtPLXcg&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Capricorn LGCCS District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1IsIFN6YXLNjRuEIsfqDgFWUPvH0HUagc5siCwp3CK8Q/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Capricorn over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Capricorn over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Capricorn over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Capricorn (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Capricorn using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesSmall scale growingHighCommercial and small scale productionLow0
AgricultureChange in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)YesPotatoes, tomatoes and other crops - large scale growing. Reduced rainfall and water availability. Reliance on groundwaterHigh0LowLack of water for potatoes, more sustainable farming patterns
AgricultureIncreased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling mothYesIntroduction of new pests. Need for research in this areaHigh0LowMore research needs to be done on the types of pests
AgricultureIncreased risks to livestockYesConsider game farming and impacts on other sectorsHigh0LowResearch, breeding of resistance livestock
AgricultureReduced food securityYesImpact on oranges and maize. Water availabilityHigh0LowResearch, crop suitability and explore resistance crops
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesLoss of indigenous plant and animal species. Have specific identification of grasslands.High0LowNeed for intensive capacity building workshops
Biodiversity and EnvironmentIncreased impacts on environment due to land-use changeYes0HighOvergrazing and Land Use change a big issueLowNeed for intensive capacity building workshops
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementLoss of industrial and labour productivityYesMining, Agricultural EstuariesHighEmployment scarcity of food, economic spinoffsLowFunding, technical skills and research, stakeholder collaboration
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on strategic infrastructureYesRoads, rail and airport, bridges - low lying bridges.HighStrategic situation of the district - economic hub of the province (economic reasons)LowTechnical capacity, funding
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesInformal dwellings vs Informal settlements. The district have informal dwellings and a low number of informal settlements. This needs to be taken into account. Impacts felt differently between urban and rural vulnerable groups.HighPoor Development planning. High population service delivery backlogLowLack of implementation of policies
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesInformal Settlements and need for servicesHighPoverty, employment and population growth, need for employmentLowPlanning and finance
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYesStandards at the bird sanctuary have deteriorated (PLK Municipality) Wastewater is discharged directly into the river where the birds feed.High0Low0
WaterLess water available for irrigation and drinkingYesThe Blouberg area has been declared a Drought Disaster AreaHigh0Low0

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Capricorn (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Capricorn (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Capricorn (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Capricorn (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References