Mopani

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Mopani District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
Mopani District Municipality CC Response Plan	2016	1,986	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B8W6Tw5QBaPDSmdiT3JueGh5bTg&resourcekey=0-kswpmTNwGt4Ciz1frCSDLQ&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>
Mopani LGCCS District Municipality CC Presentation	2016	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/10WFZj5GsOK09si7j4T414WEVWCr5hHw4_qNPKupxxr0/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Mopani over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Mopani over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Mopani over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Mopani (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Mopani using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change”

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production	Yes	Limited Maize Subsistence farmers. Some commercial in Maruleng	High	High priority crop. Staple food	Low	0
Agriculture	Increased risks to livestock	Yes	0	High	33.43%	Low	This is a priority indicator
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of High Priority Biomes	Yes	GTM (Haenertsburg). Increased Bush encroachment in GGM, GLM, LML. Also Forest in Magoebaskloof	High	0	Low	Friends of the Haenertsburg grasslands - FrOHG. Bush laufral programme currently encountering funding challenges. This is a priority indicator.
Human Health	Increased Occupational health problems	Yes	0	High	Agriculture	Low	0
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Loss of industrial and labour productivity	Yes	Ba-Phalaborwa GTM	High	High - Ba-Phalaborwa Medium - GTM Medium District	Low	0
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	GGM GTM GLM Maruleng	High	80%- 90% population live in rural areas	Low	GTM has stormwater management in place. This is a priority indicator.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Decreased income from tourism	Yes	KNP Conservancies. There are a lot of tourist attractions within the DM.	High	Already visible impacts, natural resources and wildlife are slowly becoming extinct and therefore there is an impact on the tourism industry.	Low	There are LED plans and tourism strategies but this is still a priority indicator.
Water	Less water available for irrigation and drinking	Yes	The entire District Municipality and its local municipalities are affected. Subsistence and commercial farmers are highly affected and this impacts on the District's economic activity. Pollution from mines runs into rivers impacting on quality and quantity of water for the municipalities.	High	12.69%	Low	Need for more dams. Rainwater harvest programmes (Mechanics to harness water) Awareness programmes and reduction of deforestation. This remains a priority Indicator.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Mopani (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Mopani (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Mopani (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Mopani (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB – Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB – High Risk Scenarios – Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.