Sekhukhune

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Sekhukhune District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
Sekhukhune District Municipality CC Response Plan	2016	1,225	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B8W6Tw5QBaPDT1FxczlXdHNabTg&resourcekey=0-btTDfVmw0y9xtLeAw8R5Kw&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>
Sekhukhune LGCCS District Municipality CC Presentation	2016	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1oUD0TsU0IcgwRBVaPBgBhyqfVZG6Qm2IiM3r7WMNV2U/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Sekhukhune over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Sekhukhune over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Sekhukhune over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Sekhukhune (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Sekhukhune using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change”

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production	Yes	Maize and wheat - need to separate out maize and wheat into two impacts. Importance of indigenous knowledge. Younger generation not provided with relevant knowledge to access networks in agriculture and to see potential in agriculture. People in rural areas are familiar with growing maize and what to use for intercropping; not so with wheat- requires research into how to intercrop with wheat - wheat is more resistant. Wheat- more commercial product, but consider wheat as maize will be impacted by climate change. Or introduce interventions to support maize at a subsistence and commercial level.	High- Maize; Low- Wheat	Subsistence farmers	Low	Very low
Agriculture	Change in fruit production	Yes	Citrus fruits	High	Seasonal Workers	Low	0
Agriculture	Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)	Yes	Spinach, Sweet potatoes, Carrots, Potatoes, Cabbages, Tomatoes, Watermelons, Pumpkin etc.	High	0	Low	0
Agriculture	Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth	Yes	Leaf eaters, aphids, new disease in Tubatse	High	Warm weather, influence microorganisms and resulting in disease. Tomato and leaf borer and aphids	Low	0
Agriculture	Increased risks to livestock	Yes	0	High	Shortage of food lead to livestock	Low	0
Agriculture	Reduced food security	Yes	Backyard and farms are not sustainable	High	32.62% Lack of water	Low	0
Biodiversity and Environment	Loss of High Priority Biomes	Yes	Bush and thicket encroachment	High	Decrease in pasture and grazing land	Low	0
Human Health	Increased heat stress	Yes	Already experiencing high temperatures	High	20.16% Sekhukhune DM experiencing water scarcity - insufficient water for cooling; Insufficient shelter for pay-points at social grant points - elderly especially vulnerable.- Measures?	Low	Water Scarcity. Insufficient shelter. Health facilities which lack health specialists. Centres, cooling interventions in offices, classrooms. How do we mitigate heat waves? Require air-conditioning etc. Classroom, offices require ventilation etc.
Human Health	Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and blackflies	Yes	There are more mosquitoes throughout the year, they are no longer seasonal. Need to add in breeding of flies. Separate indicator into flies and mosquitoes	Low- malaria. High- flies	Cross contamination of food - flies	Low	Lack institutional capacity to eradicate flies. No funding for vector control.
Human Health	Increased air pollution	Yes	Due to loss of vegetation, dust is experienced by communities. High industrialisation - mines and smelters. Fumigation of agricultural fields- High impact on communities.	High	In Tubatse area, there are a lot of industrial activities. Agriculture fumigations and emissions from vehicles, especially on provincial roads- trucks. Increased mines and smelters.	Low	Plans in place but no finances to implement. Air Quality Monitoring Stations and Plan developed, but lack funds to implement responses. Some compliance officers at a District Municipality level.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	SDM has 620 villages which are isolated due to lack of infrastructure	High	620 villages in SDM	Low	No plans in place
Water	Decreased quality of drinking water	Yes	0	High	Recent statistics show a decrease in water quality. SDM not complying to wastewater plant treatment standards and in some cases sewage is discharged directly into rivers and streams. Many cases of pit toilets which can affect borehole water quality, which communities are mostly reliant on.	Low	Enforce compliance. Contract water boards to improve water quality. E.g Tubatse contracted Lepelle to manage sewage plant
Water	Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts	Yes	0	High	Similar to what's represented above	Low	0
Water	Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems	Yes	0	High	0	Low	0

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Sekhukhune (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Sekhukhune (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Sekhukhune (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Sekhukhune (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB – Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB – High Risk Scenarios – Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.