Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change”
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||Maize and wheat - need to separate out maize and wheat into two impacts. Importance of indigenous knowledge. Younger generation not provided with relevant knowledge to access networks in agriculture and to see potential in agriculture. People in rural areas are familiar with growing maize and what to use for intercropping; not so with wheat- requires research into how to intercrop with wheat - wheat is more resistant. Wheat- more commercial product, but consider wheat as maize will be impacted by climate change. Or introduce interventions to support maize at a subsistence and commercial level.||High- Maize; Low- Wheat||Subsistence farmers||Low||Very low|
|Agriculture||Change in fruit production||Yes||Citrus fruits||High||Seasonal Workers||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Spinach,|
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Leaf eaters, aphids, new disease in Tubatse||High||Warm weather, influence microorganisms and resulting in disease. Tomato and leaf borer and aphids||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||0||High||Shortage of food lead to livestock||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Backyard and farms are not sustainable||High||32.62% Lack of water||Low||0|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Bush and thicket encroachment||High||Decrease in pasture and grazing land||Low||0|
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||Already experiencing high temperatures||High||20.16% Sekhukhune DM experiencing water scarcity - insufficient water for cooling; Insufficient shelter for pay-points at social grant points - elderly especially vulnerable.- Measures?||Low||Water Scarcity. Insufficient shelter. Health facilities which lack health specialists. Centres, cooling interventions in offices, classrooms. How do we mitigate heat waves? Require air-conditioning etc. Classroom, offices require ventilation etc.|
|Human Health||Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and blackflies||Yes||There are more mosquitoes throughout the year, they are no longer seasonal. Need to add in breeding of flies. Separate indicator into flies and mosquitoes||Low- malaria. High- flies||Cross contamination of food - flies||Low||Lack institutional capacity to eradicate flies. No funding for vector control.|
|Human Health||Increased air pollution||Yes||Due to loss of vegetation, dust is experienced by communities. High industrialisation - mines and smelters. Fumigation of agricultural fields- High impact on communities.||High||In Tubatse area, there are a lot of industrial activities. Agriculture fumigations and emissions from vehicles, especially on provincial roads- trucks. Increased mines and smelters.||Low||Plans in place but no finances to implement. Air Quality Monitoring Stations and Plan developed, but lack funds to implement responses. Some compliance officers at a District Municipality level.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||SDM has 620 villages which are isolated due to lack of infrastructure||High||620 villages in SDM||Low||No plans in place|
|Water||Decreased quality of drinking water||Yes||0||High||Recent statistics show a decrease in water quality. SDM not complying to wastewater plant treatment standards and in some cases sewage is discharged directly into rivers and streams. Many cases of pit toilets which can affect borehole water quality, which communities are mostly reliant on.||Low||Enforce compliance. Contract water boards to improve water quality. E.g Tubatse contracted Lepelle to manage sewage plant|
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||0||High||Similar to what's represented above||Low||0|
|Water||Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems||Yes||0||High||0||Low||0|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB – Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB – High Risk Scenarios – Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.