Vhembe

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Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Vhembe District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Vhembe District Municipality CC Response Plan20161,162WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B8W6Tw5QBaPDT2lrZWdzTk8waWs&resourcekey=0-_jdA8FWffb0MV4Z1kHA2LA&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Vhembe LGCCS District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1IhtUWj5l8_N5Tc_KoUgPQoSd7gGyrDsJAfOhRUs2sJU/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Vhembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Vhembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Vhembe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Vhembe (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Vhembe using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change” 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesGenerally grown all overHighAlmost every household grows maizeLow0
Human HealthHealth impacts from increased storm eventsYesVillages are continuously being built on flood zonesHighHouseholds being built in flood zones.LowIntegrated intervention from various municipal departments. City planners, disaster units and traditional authorities. Forums are existing within the VDM.
Human HealthIncreased heat stressYesYoung and old are highly affectedHigh1,893Low0
Human HealthIncreased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis)YesMost of the water is pollutedHigh0Low0
Human HealthIncreased Occupational health problemsYesMany people employed in agricultural sector, increased exposure.High0Low0
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYes0High163LowTo be reviewed by water sector
WaterLess water available for irrigation and drinkingYesWater levels have dropped in dams, most boreholes have dried up resulting in limited water supply.High14, 1LowTo be reviewed by water sector
WaterIncreased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systemsYesManholes exposed, stormwater drainage system.High1,074LowPoor spatial planning

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Vhembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Vhembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Vhembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Vhembe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References