Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Gert Sibande District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Gert Sibande District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power PointDownload
Gert Sibande District Municipality CC Response Plan20162,607WORDDownload

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Gert Sibande over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Gert Sibande over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Gert Sibande over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Gert Sibande (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Gert Sibande using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesMaize and some sunflowersHigh0Low0
AgricultureChange in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)YesSpinach, cabbage, tomatoes, lettuce, green pepper, beetroot, and sunflowers.
Potatoes in Bethal, Govan Mbeki LM
HighThis is particularly important for subsistence farmers. The responses need to focus on subsistence farmersLow0
AgricultureIncreased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling mothYesThose that are found in Maize, other pests for spinach, cabbage, beetroot, green peppers, lettuce, potatoes and tomatoes.High0Low0
AgricultureReduced food securityYesCold Conditions affect food production.HighPredominantly ruralLow0
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesGrasslandsHighGrassland will be lost. There are also wetlands in the areas that are being impacted on.LowWetlands
Protected Areas in Place, EIA processes and SPLUMA
Human HealthIncreased air pollutionYesThe municipality has been declared as a highveld priority area due to emissions being above normal standardHighConstruction. Five out of seven Local Municipalities: Msukaligwa, Lekwa, Dipaleseng, Dr Pixley ka Isaka Seme and Govan Mbeki, are in the Highveld Priority Area- excludes Chief Albert Luthuli and Mkhondo which have no industries and fewer mines.Low0
Human HealthIncreased Occupational health problemsYesHeat stress and cold (Frostbite)HighSignificant: farmers, industrial, forestry, opencastLowPPE is insignificant and there are no mechanisms to prevent cases
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementLoss of industrial and labour productivityYesA large number of coal mines in the District
Four power stations
One refinery
HighDominated by industries (All inclusive)LowManagement Centres
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on strategic infrastructureYesThere is a lot of very important transport infrastructure in the district:
More National Roads
Railways due to the presence of coal mines
HighDipaleseng, CAL, Mkhondo (Predominantly rural)LowNo disaster management centre
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesEntire District - Every Local MunicipalityHigh16.80%
Possibly More
LowDependant on Department of Human Settlements. Programmes do exist and these are supported by policies.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesAlready occurring
Secunda, Ermelo: Urban Centres
Trichard: Near a refinery
Standerton
HighEmbalenhle, Secunda (Industrial Activities)LowSlow Progress
Department of Human Settlements
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementDecreased income from tourismYesMore Lowveld
Chief Albert:
N17 Corridor to Swaziland
Mahamba Border
Rare frog and Bird species
Rich in Wetlands (Fauna and Flora)
GMM Heritage Site Tourism attraction sites
HighWill impact job creation and economic developmentLowProvincial Mandate not funded
WaterDecreased quality of drinking waterYesCoal Mines
Industries (All Inclusive)
Acid Mine Drainage: Mines (Currently taking place)
Seepage and contamination
Sewage overflow into water streams
HighPoor water quality has a negative impact on the health of people and the environmentLowSystems are in place but there is no implementation
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYes0High0LowEnforcement

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Gert Sibande (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Gert Sibande (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Gert Sibande (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Gert Sibande (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References