Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production||Yes||Maize and some sunflowers||High||0||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Spinach, cabbage, tomatoes, lettuce, green pepper, beetroot, and sunflowers. |
Potatoes in Bethal, Govan Mbeki LM
|High||This is particularly important for subsistence farmers. The responses need to focus on subsistence farmers||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth||Yes||Those that are found in Maize, other pests for spinach, cabbage, beetroot, green peppers, lettuce, potatoes and tomatoes.||High||0||Low||0|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Cold Conditions affect food production.||High||Predominantly rural||Low||0|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Grasslands||High||Grassland will be lost. There are also wetlands in the areas that are being impacted on.||Low||Wetlands|
Protected Areas in Place, EIA processes and SPLUMA
|Human Health||Increased air pollution||Yes||The municipality has been declared as a highveld priority area due to emissions being above normal standard||High||Construction. Five out of seven Local Municipalities: Msukaligwa, Lekwa, Dipaleseng, Dr Pixley ka Isaka Seme and Govan Mbeki, are in the Highveld Priority Area- excludes Chief Albert Luthuli and Mkhondo which have no industries and fewer mines.||Low||0|
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||Heat stress and cold (Frostbite)||High||Significant: farmers, industrial, forestry, opencast||Low||PPE is insignificant and there are no mechanisms to prevent cases|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Loss of industrial and labour productivity||Yes||A large number of coal mines in the District|
Four power stations
|High||Dominated by industries (All inclusive)||Low||Management Centres|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||There is a lot of very important transport infrastructure in the district:|
More National Roads
Railways due to the presence of coal mines
|High||Dipaleseng, CAL, Mkhondo (Predominantly rural)||Low||No disaster management centre|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Entire District - Every Local Municipality||High||16.80%|
|Low||Dependant on Department of Human Settlements. Programmes do exist and these are supported by policies.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||Already occurring|
Secunda, Ermelo: Urban Centres
Trichard: Near a refinery
|High||Embalenhle, Secunda (Industrial Activities)||Low||Slow Progress|
Department of Human Settlements
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Decreased income from tourism||Yes||More Lowveld|
N17 Corridor to Swaziland
Rare frog and Bird species
Rich in Wetlands (Fauna and Flora)
GMM Heritage Site Tourism attraction sites
|High||Will impact job creation and economic development||Low||Provincial Mandate not funded|
|Water||Decreased quality of drinking water||Yes||Coal Mines|
Industries (All Inclusive)
Acid Mine Drainage: Mines (Currently taking place)
Seepage and contamination
Sewage overflow into water streams
|High||Poor water quality has a negative impact on the health of people and the environment||Low||Systems are in place but there is no implementation|
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||0||High||0||Low||Enforcement|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.