Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||All LMs|
Game ranching. Dependent on veld grazing so exposed to drought/flood conditions
|High||Key in Kagisano. Both cultural value as well as source of food||Low||Limited adaptive capacity. Drought stricken areas. Indigenous, small frame breeds have greatest adaptive capacity and should be promoted as well as extensive fattening of slaughter stock.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||Grassland biome. 2 endemic vegetation types: Schwezer Reneke bushveld and the Western Highveld sandy grassland||High||Only in Mamosa||Low||Vegetation types not protected.|
Sector plan flagged as priorities.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased isolation of rural communities||Yes||The DM is 70% rural: Taung (106); KM (~80). People from rural areas travel long distances to go to clinics and town, Transport costs R100. There are many rural areas in Naledi and Dithakwaneng.||High||70%, the area is mostly rural and there are many communities that are isolated.||Low||Transport (buses) is available in the mornings and afternoon but it is not enough, people also sell their livestock and buy cars to reduce isolation. Policies are in place or developed. Low capacity due to lack of finances.|
|Water||Decreased quality of drinking water||Yes||Mamusa has run dry|
KM water is salty and km has graves which affect water quality
In some areas drinking water is limited or there is no water at all
In Naledi drinking water is made available in the morning and at night
The Blue drop score has probably decreased because the number of people using water has increased while the water available has decreased
|Low||Government takes water from the Bloemhof dam to Mamusa local municipality.|
The district provides JOJO tanks to communities, these tanks are placed strategically and the service provider refills them
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Naledi|
Mamusa has run dry
Some areas of Taung and Molopo have problems with water availability
The green drop score has also probably changed
|Low||Naledi has an efficient/award winning wastewater treatment system in place.|
There is a wastewater treatment plant in Lekoteng which was taken over by Sedibeng to improve quality.
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.