Ngaka Modiri Molema

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Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1um7OW8JcCt4MeHIvHR7THa1Z3tfnlsj6rkoN_G0T-Jg/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality CC Response Plan20161,670WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B8W6Tw5QBaPDVWZleTQyblIxSzg&resourcekey=0-J4M-uqQaNgBL_yJC1ywf2A&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Ngaka Modiri Molema over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Ngaka Modiri Molema over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Ngaka Modiri Molema over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Ngaka Modiri Molema (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Ngaka Modiri Molema using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesBoth small scale and commercial farming. 65% of maize compared to other crops in NMMD.Maize=High, wheat=Low, Barley=LowLocal economy is dependent on farming and livestock. Maize is used as a staple food. Most people are employed by the maize farming sector (production of raw materials and processing).LowNot enough capacity around subsistence farming.
Strategy is required for support. Maize crop is highly adaptable. Barley and wheat are adaptable under irrigation. Due to drought, large proportion of maize farms will perform well under irrigation. Under rainfed conditions the focus will be on growing of drought tolerant maize varieties. Grain sorghum can be suitable crop to grow due to its drought tolerance.
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesGrasslands biomeHighGrasslands are important for water production in the area
They contribute to soil formation and general ecosystem services
LowStrategy development on preserving the grasslands (Department of Environmental Affairs)
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased isolation of rural communitiesYes0High0Low0
WaterDecreased quality of drinking waterYesDam levels are low in all of the municipal areas, e.g. NMM, Ditsobotla, Tswang (Barberspan RAMSAR)
Groundwater resources because some of the drinking water/irrigation is very low. (Indicator required for groundwater)
High40.72%LowLimited responses to adapt to: drought, evaporation, low groundwater levels.
Infrastructure needs to be maintained as a priority.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Ngaka Modiri Molema (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Ngaka Modiri Molema (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Ngaka Modiri Molema (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Ngaka Modiri Molema (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References