Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, nuts, etc.)||Yes||Cotton, Lucerne, olives, peanuts and pecan nuts are grown in Phokwane.||High||Commercial farmers do export produce. |
Crop production provides employment for local people
|Low||Department of Agriculture. Farmers (FAMSA). AGRI NC.|
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||There are cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and game in all local municipalities in the District (Phokwane, Magareng, Sol Platjie, Dikgatlhon).||High||Social economy |
Commercial farming and export of produce.
|Low||Department of Rural Development, Department of Agriculture, Commonage Plan. |
Vaccination programme to control diseases.
Research on alternative feeding options for livestock.
Research on climate resilient cattle (cross-breading).
Day events for farmers.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||A little bit of Nama-Karoo Biome in the south-eastern parts of Sol Plaatje Local Municipality. |
Along the riet river in Ritchie -FBDM (PKSDM boundary)
Griqualand west is a centre of endemism in the North (Ulco area)
|High - Nama-Karoo Biome|
Low - Savanna Biome
|The Nama Karoo will be lost within the District Municipal Area due to encroachment by Savanna Biome.|
The Griqualand West Centre of Endemism and the associated endemic species might change and some may disappear.
|Low||Research is being done but the information is not accessible internally, and funding is limited.|
SANParks monitors climate change within the Northern Cape.
There is a lack of awareness on environmental issues - Arbour week was lost in popularity.
|Biodiversity and Environment||Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change||Yes||Demand on housing and business comprises agricultural land and biodiversity.||High||Ecosystems are destroyed by any development, including illegal mining and informal settlements. However, development occurs at a much slower rate in the District Municipal Area and the limited revitalization that takes place occurs in existing areas.||Low||Spatial development plans, spatial development framework, Department of Environmental Affairs. |
Rural development plans
Landcover data (GIS)
FBDM modelling framework
|Human Health||Increased heat stress||Yes||People working in agricultural fields are mostly affected by heat stress. There were mortalities in the summer of 2015.|
Asbestos and Zinc users - few houses in the District Municipal Area still have asbestos roofs.
|High||Yes, in informal settlements and rural areas. |
There are a high percentage of people with weak immune systems (ill health).
Increases in temperature are also due to climate change.
|Low||Department of COGHSTA, District and Local Municipalities, Department of health|
|Human Health||Increased air pollution||Yes||Green Point Area complaining about air pollution. Industries including an abattoir in Jan Kempdorp.|
Wastewaterplans- airborne pathogens from wastewater treatments plants.
Dust, mining and indoor fire pollution.
|High||The District Municipal Areas has a few industries. They have atmospheric emissions licenses (AEL) and they are reporting their emissions on a monthly basis to the National Department of Environmental Affairs.|
Informal settlements have issues with indoor air pollution.
|Low||Environmental Health, Department of Environmental Affairs, District and Local Municipalities.|
No existing preventative measures and programmes. No monitoring.
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||People working in agricultural fields are mostly affected by heat stress. Asbestos and Zinc users|
Zoonotic diseases are also an issue in the area.
|High||Heat stress results in:|
- low production
- loss of livestock
- water shortages from high evaporation
|Low||Department of COGHSTA, District and Local Municipalities.|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure||Yes||Extreme changes in weather conditions, damages transport infrastructure.||High||Poorly designed stormwater drainage system and the lack of local stormwater management plans.||Low||Department of Transport, Roads, SANRAL, Transnet|
Development of stormwater master plans at Local Municipality levels.
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Low lying areas - flood plains.|
Existing and new informal settlements.
Asbestos and Zinc users. There is a lack of tap water and there are sanitation issues.
|High||Increment in migration patterns.|
Displacement of communities.
|Low||COGHSTA, District and Local Municipalities|
District disaster management centre
|Water||Decreased quality of drinking water||Yes||Workshop attendees decided to focus on water in general, not specifically drinking water.|
Extended drought mitigated by WAR on Leaks Programme, Blue Drop score drop and water restrictions - due to decreased volumes in the Vaal River system.
Increased water temperature in river systems
|High||The water source is the Vaal River which is in a poor state. The poor state is expected to continue and deteriorate further, over time.|
This impacts on the health of children.
Contact DWS for more information.
Temperatures already increasing.
|Low||Department of Water and Sanitation. Department of Environmental Affairs, Frances Baard District and Local Municipalities.|
Kimberley Ekapa Mining Joint venture (KEMJV) groundwater study, environmental impact assessment (EIA) by Golder Associates Africa.
Various monitoring programs.
There is enough research, but little implementation or capacity (e.g. human resources, Finance, infrastructure) in the District Municipality.
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||Galestwe Goga pump station discharging into Kamfers Dam|
Vaalhars water user association
Return flows go into the Vaal River and groundwater
Riverton pump station also experiences challenges of diluting waste water discharges.
KEMJV uses waste water for treatment and processing of ore.
|High||Workshop attendees decided to change the focus of the sensitivity question from Green Drop Scores to eutrophication (Nitrates and Phosphates) and sediment load.|
Increase of nutrient load (Nitrates and Phosphate) resulting in eutrophication and sediment load increases.
Less water for dilution / wash-off.
Lack of maintenance at waste water treatment works (WWTW).
Lack of water sources for mines.
|Low||Municipal Infrastructural Plan, Department of Water and Sanitation, District Municipality.|
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Workshop attendees added 'mining' to the indicator title and 'resulting in evaporation' to the description. |
Less water in towns and cities along river and water systems due to increased evaporation.
Gong Gong experienced water shortages for about two weeks.
|High||Workshop attendees changed the sensitivity question to reflect water levels in dams and boreholes.|
Mining to explore water efficient technologies due to pressure on the available water resources
Education and awareness programs
|Low||Department of Water and Sanitation, District Municipality.|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.