John Taolo Gaetsewe

Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality.

File Name	Year	Size (MB)	Type	Download
John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality CC Presentation	2016	12,980	Power Point	<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1LH0iAMGuSzORax_ruJERJYM9EYWq586rd3q03NPonFM/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a>
John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality CC Response Plan	2016	2,792	WORD	<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrc3B6LWx4eGF5UlU&resourcekey=0-g5LMALsVKfj0pF5urRmyJQ&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout John Taolo Gaetsewe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout John Taolo Gaetsewe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout John Taolo Gaetsewe over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in John Taolo Gaetsewe (SANParks 2011a)

Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in John Taolo Gaetsewe using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme	Indicator Title	Exposure	Exposure Comment	Sensitivity	Sensitivity Comment	Adaptive Capacity	Adaptive Capacity Comment
Agriculture	Increased risks to livestock	Yes	Extremely vulnerable. Impacts on the husbandry for livestock (grazing, management and health)	High	Drought, reduced productivity, low grazing capacity. No water infrastructure in the rural areas and villages.	Low	Statistics SA Drought relief programme (Department of Agriculture) - subsistence farmers are supplied with animal feed. Farmer support programmes (farmer empowerment). Funding. Awareness campaigns to reduce overgrazing. Veld fires. Proven water accessibility (Municipal water tankers). Utilise Lesotho highland water project (LHWP) since Botswana is also planning to utilise it.
Biodiversity and Environment	Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change	Yes	Kathu area- Mining activities, renewable energy plants, new mines that take up areas of greater than 100ha such as the Hotazel manganese mines. The existing mining areas are expanding.	High	Loss of biodiversity, critical species. The Kathu forest is an important buffer zone that is being threatened due to proposed development.	Low	There is existing Policy and Legislation, however there is a delay in processes e.g. EIA processes. Biodiversity offsets should be implemented when large developments are approved. Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), Department of Mineral Resources (DMR).
Human Health	Increased heat stress	Yes	Extreme heat is the contributing factor.	High	Increased number of patients in paediatric and geriatric wards. Shortage of medical doctors.	Low	No finance available to support the health facilities. Conduct awareness campaigns on the impacts of heat stress, especially in schools as children often have to walk long distances to school, and children often bring the message home to other family members. The campaign could take the form of a competition.
Human Health	Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity	Yes	Reduction in protein diet availability.	High	Ruralness of the area leads to Isolated communities. Lack of rainfall, leads to little access to potable water. People thus rely on groundwater. Capacity is low - Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs)	Low	War room on poverty - Department of Social Development deals with poverty. Research Strategies in place, nut they are not enough.
Human Health	Increased air pollution	Yes	Air pollution from the mines, dust pollution, and indoor air pollution.	High	Significant growth in mining area. Secondary pollution cases (e.g. from gravel roads) still experienced by schools, individuals and households.	Low	Section 78 -air quality assessment underway. Three monitoring stations for air pollution. Mining houses conducting assessments and reporting on air pollution.
Human Health	Increased Occupational health problems	Yes	Farm Labourers and open cast mining activities.	High	Lots of informal and rural settlements that are not compliant with regard to national building regulations.	Low	No policies in place.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Loss of industrial and labour productivity	Yes	Mining related industries, e.g. in Joe Morolong and Gamagara local municipalities.	High	Iron ore and manganese mining contributes significantly to the economy.	Low	No institutional capacity in the environmental health unit (John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality) No research that the District Municipality is aware of. No policy that the District Municipality is aware of. No budgets. Mining policies in place.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings	Yes	All the local municipalities are experiencing unplanned informal dwellings.	High	Floods, fires, drought, erosion , basic infrastructure, water and sanitation are issues.	Low	Fire response (fire brigade) Challenge: accessibility and response time. Disaster management plan . Bulk master plan for the District Municipal Area.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased isolation of rural communities	Yes	Inaccessibility to a number of services in different areas, especially in Joe Morolong Local Municipality.	High	Joe Morolong, the biggest Local Municipality, is mostly rural (about 90%) and about 60% of Ga-Segonyana Local Municipality is rural.	Low	Fire response (fire brigade) Challenge: accessibility and response time. Disaster management plan . Bulk master plan for the District Municipal Area.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management	Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas	Yes	Population is decreasing in Joe Morolong Local Municipality and increasing in Ga-Segonyana Local Municipality, affecting the economy.	High	Minimal opportunities in rural areas, leading to high unemployment and grant dependency. Poor transport infrastructure including bridges and roads, and poor access to services in the rural areas.	Low	Rural development plan. Comprehensive rural development plan. Revision of Spatial Development Framework (SDF). Local Economic Development (LED) Strategy. Integrated Development Strategy.
Water	Decreased quality of drinking water	Yes	High level of nitrates in Makatirus Area (Joe Moroleng) Gamagara Local Municipality. Ga-Segonyana Local Municipality.	High	Average of the three Local Municipalities = 48.5. New data required as the situation has deteriorated. There is no rainfall and little to no dilution of waste water.	Low	Boreholes have dried up. There is a need to establish new water works. There is a need to upgrade existing water works. Finance and human capacity required.
Water	Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts	Yes	Due to drought and urbanisation, water demand has increased. Unlined pitlatrines are impacting on the quality of ground water.	High	Average of three Local Municipalities is 43.6. New data is required.	Low	There is a need to establish new water works. There is a need to upgrade existing water works. There is a possibility of using grey water for flushing toilets. Finance required.
Water	Less water available for irrigation and drinking	Yes	Less water available due to higher temperatures and the subsequent evaporation and transpiration. Increased population due to migrant workers places strain on water resource availability.	High	Availability of safe drinking water to all communities. Groundwater is the main source of water in John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality and communities depend on it. 6,2 incidences per 1,000 children.	Low	Grey water can be used for irrigation purposes. Aging infrastructure is a concern. Vandalisation of water resources (e.g. taps) is a problem- Retrofititing plastic for metal is a possible solution. Different service providers for water, with different tariffs structures. Insufficient qualified staff (capacity). No indigent list for villages.
Water	Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking storm water and sewer systems	Yes	Blocked drainage system due to littering, ageing infrastructure and lack of maintenance.	High	Approximately 60% of households have no access to rubbish disposal. *new data required there is no true reflection of what is happening in JT District	Low	John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality is mostly rural. Illegal dumping occurs. Maintenance of waste management equipment.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in John Taolo Gaetsewe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in John Taolo Gaetsewe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in John Taolo Gaetsewe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in John Taolo Gaetsewe (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References

CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.