Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Namakwa District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Namakwa District Municipality CC Presentation201612,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1dn_aCNJkTKqJ2DYHaulQ8t9_4oo9CeWcDmf6vZL6YDc/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Namakwa District Municipality CC Response Plan20167,964WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrc3ZPNkxBTFpXZFk&resourcekey=0-7uSk3-w1mL_XfgoYA7ZqCw&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Namakwa over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Namakwa over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Namakwa over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Namakwa (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Namakwa using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureChange in grain (maize, wheat & barley) productionYesWheat and oats grown in KamiesbergHighImpacted on by drought
Lots of small scale farmers
Alternatives such as Lucerne
LowProviding fertilizer and equipment. Solar panels for borehole water.
AgricultureChange in viticulture (grapes) productionYesOccurs in the Nama-Khoi and Khai Ma Local Municipalities.HighLivelihoodLowDisaster Management Plan.
Drought Management Plan.
AgricultureChange in fruit productionYesDates, mangoes, grapes and tomatoes.
These fruit are found in the following Local Municipalities: Khai Ma Local Municipality; Nama Khoi Local Municipality.
Export cultivator.
HighLivelihoodLowDisaster Management Plan.
Drought Management Plan.
AgricultureIncreased risks to livestockYesOccurs in all six Local Municipalities.
Livelihood for people.
Important sector for the economy of the District Municipality Area.
HighSubsistence farming including communal farming activities.LowSmall grants facility.
Awareness.
Interventions from Department of Agriculture.

Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of High Priority BiomesYesThere are biodiversity hot spots (e.g. Richtersveld, Gamsberg and more).
There are also endemic species in the District Municipal Area.
Quiver Tree (Kokerboom) occurrence has changed over time.
HighDesert Biome is taking over the Succulent Karoo Biome in the District Municipal Area.
The Succulent Karoo Biome is pushing out the Fynbos Biome.
Succulent Karoo and Fynbos Biomes are decreasing causing a decrease (or loss) of species in the District Municipal Area.
LowCSA has done some biodiversity /EbA mapping. Studies have been done due to development by subject specialists (e.g. on the Succulent Karoo Biome).
Human HealthIncreased heat stressYesNoticeable changes in temperature in the last few years.
Changes in rainfall patterns.
HighMedium based on the provided figures.
People with existing respiratory problems are affected.
Everyone is affected, not only vulnerable people.
LowAwareness campaigns.
Disaster Management Plan.
Human HealthIncreased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis)YesPreviously reported cases in Nama Khoi Local Municipal Area include: diarrhoea, hepatitis and typhoid (carrier).HighMostly occurs in children under five years.LowHealth education.
Awareness campaigns.
District outbreak response team (DORT).
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on strategic infrastructureYesThunderstorms in Hantam Karoo and Richtersveld Local Municipality, leading to roads flooding.
Roads - N7,N1, R354, and R356.
HighDisruption to access of roads connecting communities to hospitals, disaster management and other services.LowNo responsible department personnel at provincial level.
Policy intervention needed.
Disaster Management Plan.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased isolation of rural communitiesYesNamakwa District Municipality.HighGravel roads are not maintained.LowFinancial constraints, and equipment, personnel and skills are all non-existant.
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesEducation, Job opportunities and economic opportunities.HighSubsistence / small scale farming.LowDraft Rural Development Plan
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementDecreased income from tourismYesFlower season in Namakwa, Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Programme (SKEP) and the telescope in Sutherland.HighNational roads have been cut off due to extreme weather such as snow, thunderstorms, drought.
Water restrictions.
LowLow to medium as there is a tourism plan and office. However, there is a lack of budget and specialised skills.
WaterDecreased quality of drinking waterYesIncreased temperature and decreased rainfall mean that borehole levels do not recover or grow well.HighEven the Local Municipality that has the highest blue drop score is not functioning optimally.
More 'failures' when conducting water monitoring processes.
LowWater shortages.
Projects to save water.
Future projects for water harvesting.
Monitoring of water quality.
Working for Water to work on decreasing the number of invasive alien trees (e.g. Prosopis species) in the river bed.
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYes0High0Low0
WaterLess water available for irrigation and drinkingYesBorehole water levels are decreasing.
Water is being transported to drought affected areas.
HighMedium to high sensitivity.
Incidences are happening but not to a critical extent.
LowNGOs like ALEXOR, District Municipality etc. help to supply water to affected areas.
Water saving campaign.
There are a number of communities without water and are dependent on mines.

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Namakwa (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Namakwa (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Namakwa (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Namakwa (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References