Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Yes | Wheat and oats grown in Kamiesberg | High | Impacted on by drought Lots of small scale farmers Alternatives such as Lucerne | Low | Providing fertilizer and equipment. Solar panels for borehole water. |
| Agriculture | Change in viticulture (grapes) production | Yes | Occurs in the Nama-Khoi and Khai Ma Local Municipalities. | High | Livelihood | Low | Disaster Management Plan. Drought Management Plan. |
| Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Yes | Dates, mangoes, grapes and tomatoes. These fruit are found in the following Local Municipalities: Khai Ma Local Municipality; Nama Khoi Local Municipality. Export cultivator. | High | Livelihood | Low | Disaster Management Plan. Drought Management Plan. |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Occurs in all six Local Municipalities. Livelihood for people. Important sector for the economy of the District Municipality Area. | High | Subsistence farming including communal farming activities. | Low | Small grants facility. Awareness. Interventions from Department of Agriculture. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of High Priority Biomes | Yes | There are biodiversity hot spots (e.g. Richtersveld, Gamsberg and more). There are also endemic species in the District Municipal Area. Quiver Tree (Kokerboom) occurrence has changed over time. | High | Desert Biome is taking over the Succulent Karoo Biome in the District Municipal Area. The Succulent Karoo Biome is pushing out the Fynbos Biome. Succulent Karoo and Fynbos Biomes are decreasing causing a decrease (or loss) of species in the District Municipal Area. | Low | CSA has done some biodiversity /EbA mapping. Studies have been done due to development by subject specialists (e.g. on the Succulent Karoo Biome). |
| Human Health | Increased heat stress | Yes | Noticeable changes in temperature in the last few years. Changes in rainfall patterns. | High | Medium based on the provided figures. People with existing respiratory problems are affected. Everyone is affected, not only vulnerable people. | Low | Awareness campaigns. Disaster Management Plan. |
| Human Health | Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g. typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis) | Yes | Previously reported cases in Nama Khoi Local Municipal Area include: diarrhoea, hepatitis and typhoid (carrier). | High | Mostly occurs in children under five years. | Low | Health education. Awareness campaigns. District outbreak response team (DORT). |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure | Yes | Thunderstorms in Hantam Karoo and Richtersveld Local Municipality, leading to roads flooding. Roads - N7,N1, R354, and R356. | High | Disruption to access of roads connecting communities to hospitals, disaster management and other services. | Low | No responsible department personnel at provincial level. Policy intervention needed. Disaster Management Plan. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased isolation of rural communities | Yes | Namakwa District Municipality. | High | Gravel roads are not maintained. | Low | Financial constraints, and equipment, personnel and skills are all non-existant. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas | Yes | Education, Job opportunities and economic opportunities. | High | Subsistence / small scale farming. | Low | Draft Rural Development Plan |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Decreased income from tourism | Yes | Flower season in Namakwa, Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Programme (SKEP) and the telescope in Sutherland. | High | National roads have been cut off due to extreme weather such as snow, thunderstorms, drought. Water restrictions. | Low | Low to medium as there is a tourism plan and office. However, there is a lack of budget and specialised skills. |
| Water | Decreased quality of drinking water | Yes | Increased temperature and decreased rainfall mean that borehole levels do not recover or grow well. | High | Even the Local Municipality that has the highest blue drop score is not functioning optimally. More 'failures' when conducting water monitoring processes. | Low | Water shortages. Projects to save water. Future projects for water harvesting. Monitoring of water quality. Working for Water to work on decreasing the number of invasive alien trees (e.g. Prosopis species) in the river bed. |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | 0 | High | 0 | Low | 0 |
| Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Yes | Borehole water levels are decreasing. Water is being transported to drought affected areas. | High | Medium to high sensitivity. Incidences are happening but not to a critical extent. | Low | NGOs like ALEXOR, District Municipality etc. help to supply water to affected areas. Water saving campaign. There are a number of communities without water and are dependent on mines. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
-
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
-
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.