Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Adaptive Capacity Comment
|Agriculture||Increased risks to livestock||Yes||Mainly sheep, goats and cattle in most of the ZF Mgcawu District||High||Changes vegetation, will not be able to sustain our livestock.||Low||Changing from cattle to more indigenous sheep and other species.|
|Agriculture||Reduced food security||Yes||Not a major agricultural area for subsistence farmers. Area too dry.||High||Significant number of subsistence farmers||Low||Farmers had to sell livestock, thus Dept of Agriculture provided support during drought.|
|Biodiversity and Environment||Loss of High Priority Biomes||Yes||The Nama-Karoo towards Orange River Valley to the South.||High||Change from one ecosystems to another.||Low||No interventions yet.|
|Human Health||Health impacts from increased storm events||Yes||Upington, Keimos, Groblershoop, Kakamas do get floods. Wind storms.||High||Wind storms. Floods in other areas will affect the rise of water levels like the Orange River.||Low||Adaptation upgrade for storm water drainage system (bridges at Keimos). No capacity for wind storms. Disaster Management in place.|
|Human Health||Increased air pollution||Yes||Biomass burning and domestic burning - whole of ZF Mgcawu region.|
Industry and other sources of pollution.
|High||Dispersed, Mining, TB - indoor air quality.||Low||AEL, Abatement equipment, National control dust regulation.|
|Human Health||Increased Occupational health problems||Yes||Grape farm labourers in the ZFM area working in the vineyards||High||Heat waves lead to heat stroke.||Low||Low capacity to respond, Awareness campaigns, interact with employees and their regulations. Department of Health|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings||Yes||Most of the ZFM region has informal settlements||High||Over 30%||Low||Dawid Kruiper LM and Kai! Garib LM busy formalising informal settlements. (Town Planning) - No 1 Indicator|
|Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management||Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas||Yes||People from rural towns moving to Upington||High||Only source of income are grapes which is seasonal.||Low||Rural Development Plan to be verified. Projects: Riemvasmaak and Vredesvallei, WTW; WWTW, Road Bridge. Skills Development, Grape farming. No 3 Indicator|
|Water||Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts||Yes||The water that reaches ZF Mgcawu is already polluted from upstream.||High||Green Drop scores.||Low||Require financial and institutional assistance (DWS).|
|Water||Less water available for irrigation and drinking||Yes||Already have high temperature increases, with climate change it's more likely to get hotter. Eskom managing Vanderkloof dam - water low.||High||Water resources over allocated in area. High usage for agriculture.||Low||Irrigation|
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy ﬂows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.