Draft Climate Change Plan
File Name | Year | Size (MB) | Type | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Winelands District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/11XjHFdbFMi9JhRsMXh7L4K2a3jvOGWA1cDDieE7Dm9M/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| Cape Winelands District Municipality CC Summary Report | 2018 | 21,010 | WORD | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z2YtdHRGT3hkVU0&resourcekey=0-oFJiQ7vNWsYNvlZfOswSfg&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| Cape Winelands Framework for a draft Climate Change Response Adaptation Strategy | 2014 | 1,326 | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrUTlqUklzay1IekE" target="_blank">Download</a> |
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in viticulture (grapes) production | Yes | Throughout the District, except in Langeberg and Witzenberg based on temperature, rainfall and chill units. | High | Viticulture is a high priority crop in the District with 56 % of all South African wine grapes, and 68 % of South Africa’s wine, grown in the District. The District is the most important viticulture and winemaking area in South Africa | Low | Risks highlighted in the W-Cape CC Response Strategy, but implementation not clear. Existing Plans such as SmartAgri and WC Climate Change Response Strategy. Research has been done on the impacts of climate change on the wine sector in South Africa. |
| Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Yes | Throughout the entire District, except in Langeberg and Witzenberg based on temperature, rainfall and chill units. Includes apples and citrus. | High | Already strained by restricted water supply. Impacted more by extreme events than by changes in averages. | Low | Risks highlighted in the W-Cape CC Response Framework, but implementation not clear. Existing Plans such as SmartAgri and WC Climate Change Response Strategy |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Intensive livestock production- chickens, eggs, pigs. | High | Poultry farming is one of the most important agricultural activities in the District. | Low | Some adaptive responses highlighted in Smart Agri Plan. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of High Priority Biomes | Yes | Throughout the entire District. This is due to higher temperatures, less rainfall, fire frequencies and invasive alien species. | High | It is forecast that the Fynbos Biome will be substantially reduced by the Succulent Karoo Biome. | Low | The 2016 Fynbos Forum: Ecosystem Guidelines document covers the lowland, midland and mountain Fynbos ecosystems in-depth, discussing the current state of the Fynbos biome, how it is being damaged and what is needed to reduce and reverse future degradation and change. Langeberg: The National Fire Protection Agency assisted the municipality with preparing plans and maps on where to implement fire breaks. Langeberg now needs support and financial resources to implement. The Succulent Karoo is currently under pressure due to the increased incidents of veld fires and lower rainfall. There is not enough research being done in the District on the specific impacts of climate change with regards to the loss of high priority biomes. The District needs to understand what the impacts of this loss will be on each sector, e.g. tourism, agriculture, economy etc. Provincial SoER, SDFs, EMF's. |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change | Yes | The entire District due to farming practices, urbanisation, population growth etc. | High | The natural environment is under pressure from intensive agricultural practices, coastal population growth and the expansion of urban areas. | Low | Although there is a lack of statistics regarding land use change and degradation, the Provincial State of the Environment Report highlights the need of provincially developed programmes to achieve more sustainable land management practices for the future. Provincial SoER, SDFs, EMF's. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Loss of industrial and labour productivity | Yes | The entire District is affected including the various types of agricultural production, wine and brandy processing, juice products, dried and tinned fruits. | High | The manufacturing sector is vulnerable to changes in the economy. Climate change is a threat, but this sector may also be affected through government policies (such as carbon taxes), an increase in production costs and varying customer behaviour. | Low | Limited systems in place to deal with impacts on productivity. LED strategies, Local Municipalities and District Municipalities, Provincial Economic Review Outlook. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure | Yes | The entire District, due to fires and severe weather events. | High | Floods and fires are disaster risk priorities with reference to the current and future condition of strategic infrastructure. | Low | Additional input from other municipalities and departments is required. Lack of capacity (Disaster Management). Budget constraints. Risk Assessment, Provincial Disaster Risk Profile. Uncertainty around implementation of policies and plans. District's Climate Change Response Adaptation Strategy. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Yes | Only informal dwellings (including backyard dwellings). Areas across all municipalities. | High | 15.96% of the households within the District are informal settlements. Informal settlements are often located in areas prone to flooding and other natural hazards. | Low | District's Climate Change Response Adaptation Strategy. Specific information is required from all local municipalities. Additional input from other municipalities and departments is required. Lack of capacity (Disaster Management). Budget constraints. SDFs, Provincial Informal Settlement Plan. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased isolation of rural communities | Yes | Farming areas, Witzenberg, Langeberg, and remote towns. | High | Majority of the area is agricultural land. Remote towns. | Low | District's Climate Change Response Adaptation Strategy. Specific information is required from all local municipalities. Additional input from other municipalities and departments is required. Lack of capacity (Disaster Management). Budget constraints. SDFs, Provincial Informal Settlement Plan. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Decreased income from tourism | Yes | Wine tourism (both domestic and overseas) and Fynbos Biome. | High | The wine industry is a large contributor to the tourism sector (tourism real estate, wine activities, culinary events, wine competitions, harvest festivals etc). Cultural experiences. | Medium - Low | The provincial Climate Change Response Strategy highlights the importance of safeguarding the unique cultural, scenic and coastal resources on which the tourism economy depends. Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, SmartAgri. |
| Water | Decreased quality of drinking water | Yes | The entire District is under pressure due to reduced rainfall, invasive alien species, intensive and poorly managed agricultural activities as well as lime production. | Medium - High | Blue Drop scores 2014: Witzenberg LM: 96% Breede Valley LM: 89% Langeberg LM: 72% Drakenstein LM: 72% Stellenbosch LM: 80% Control of water supply is dependent on City of CPT. | Low | The District's Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (draft) highlights various key interventions for securing future water quality such as the Working For Water Programme, Cape Winelands Invasive Alien Vegetation Management Programme and the Cape Winelands River Rehabilitation Programme. Source more information from what local municipalities are doing. Possibility of water augmentation from CPT. Alien clearing mechanical plans. WC Climate Change Response Strategy. WC Sustainable Water Management Plan. Risk Assessment. |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | In the entire District, due to reduced rainfall, invasive alien species, agricultural activities and lime production. Increased pressure on infrastructure as a result of informal settlements. | High | Green Drop Scores for 2013: Witzenberg LM: 97.96% Breede Valley LM: 90.21% Langeberg LM: 51.58% Drakenstein LM: 77.79% Stellenbosch LM: 40.16% Water quality has been identified as a major risk within the District. | Low | The River Health Programme primarily makes use of biological indicators to assess the condition or health of river systems, which is useful for detecting, identifying and reporting on emerging problems facing aquatic ecosystems. Research source of pollution - agriculture fertilisers as source of pollution. Invasive aquatic weeds. Alien cleansing mechanical plans. WC Climate Change Response Strategy. WC Sustainable Water Management Plan. Risk Assessment. |
| Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Yes | The entire District is affected because of reduced rainfall and extended periods of drought, uncontrolled invasive alien species, poorly managed agricultural activities as well as increased pressure on infrastructure as a result of informal settlements. Another challenge is the transportation of sewage effluent due to reduced water availability. | High | Water availability is closely linked to climate variability and rainfall is unevenly distributed across the province, this limits development. | Low | The District's Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (draft) highlights that to combat tightening water supply conditions, adaptation regarding the efficiency of water use is required. Possibility of water augmentation from CPT. Alien cleansing mechanical plans. WC Climate Change Response Strategy. WC Sustainable Water Management Plan. Risk Assessment. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.