Draft Climate Change Plan

The table below provides a list of drafted climate change plan documents that are available for download for the Garden Route District Municipality.
File Name
Year
Size (MB)
Type
Download
Eden District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation201812,980Power Point<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/11HJU-IQLxLH8jXlXgOTjIGy0OQK29r3FQ1cMhcDbuUM/export/pptx&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Eden District Municipality CC Summary Report201819,342WORD<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z2hRRlFWU0VtZXM&resourcekey=0-inCdDTuyrLwDrvFFgAe5lg&rtpof=true&sd=true&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>
Eden District Municipality Climate Change Adaptation Plan20141,063PDF<a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrbktfanZaWjhMelU&quot; target="_blank">Download</a>

Key Climate Hazards

Increasing temperatures

The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security.  Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Garden Route over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing rainfall variability

The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.

Figure: Projected changes in annual average rainfall throughout Garden Route over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Increasing storms and flooding events

The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.  Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.

Figure: Projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout Garden Route over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (CSIR 2019)

Changing Biomes

The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.

Figure: The current delineation of biomes in Garden Route (SANParks 2011a)
Figure: The predicted shift in biomes in Garden Route using a high-risk scenario (SANParks 2011b)

Climate Change Vulnerability

A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:

"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change" 

Summary of Climate Change Response Plan

A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.

Theme
Indicator Title
Exposure
Exposure Comment
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Comment
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity Comment
AgricultureIncreased risks to livestockYesMossel Bay to Heidelberg and the Little Karoo,
more extensive farming methods are practised such as livestock production (sheep, beef, goats, ostriches etc.)
and game farming.
Tick borne diseases such as malaria affect livestock in the District.
HighLivestock provides meat, wool, fresh milk, cheese, yogurt, processed milk and eggs for the District's at the commercial and subsistence level.
Avian flu for poultry.
LowThere are interventions but they are insufficient.
Farmers and labourers
Eden District Municipality Climate Change Adaptation Plan
Eden District Municipality Regional Economic Development Strategy
Biodiversity and EnvironmentIncreased impacts on threatened ecosystemsYesThere are vulnerable ecosystems within the District.HighThe following ecosystems within the District are categorised as critically endangered:
Langkloof Shale Renosterveld
Knysna Sand Fynbos
Garden Route Shale Fynbos
Cape Lowland Alluvial Vegetation
Muscadel Riviere
Cape Lowland Alluvial Vegetation
Eastern Ruens Shale Renosterveld
Runes Silcrete Renosterveld
Garden Route Granite Fynbos
Mossel Bay Shale Renosterveld
Increasing temperatures and drought periods result in the decrease in species diversity.
LowThere is a lack of institutional support due to poor structuring.
There is minimal implementation.
Research and policy exists but threats from invasive plants are displacing threatened vegetation types.
DEADP Care Nature
Local Municipalities
Eden Biodiversity Report
Eden Biodiversity Action Plan
Sanparks
SANBI
DEA
FPD
Biodiversity and EnvironmentIncreased impacts on environment due to land-use changeYesTuin op die braak (Stilbaai)
Lowland coastal Fynbos (George/M. Bay, Knysna and Bitou)
Lowland wetlands (Tronehout Southern Cape)
HighAlthough biodiversity is protected through conservation areas in the District, there is a high rate of land-use change due to soil erosion, the spread of invasive alien species, population growth, the expansion of agricultural and urban areas, increased pollution, and poor waste management.
Rowland coastal fynbos has been highly transformed in the last 10 years due to poor spatial development planning and increasing demand for coastal view/access.
LowPeople responsible for protecting the environment are approving developments and the main causes for this are financial risks, politics and legal obligations.
DEADP
CapeNature
Sanparks
SANBI
DEA
FPD,
Municipalities
Biodiversity and EnvironmentLoss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystemsYesStilbaai, Wilderness, Lakes, Goukou Systems, Knysna, and Keurbooms.HighMost wetlands within the District are classified as either ‘moderately modified’ or ‘heavily to critically modified'.
Ploughing/excavation of wetland during droughts.
LowHardened surfaces replacing wetlands reduce the ability to store stormwater runoff.
DEADP CapeNature
Sanparks
SANBI
DEA
FPD
Local Municipalities
Coastal and MarineLoss of land due to sea level riseYesGlentana
Wilderness
Groot Brak
Knysna
HighThe District Municipal Area contains a large amount of coastal land with less than 5.5 m elevation.LowHomeowners
Local Municipalities
Insurance Companies
Eden Coastal Management Plan.
CML's draft available October 2017.
There's a need to exercise policy of retreat in SDF.
Coastal and MarineIncreased damage to property from sea level riseYesWilderness
DANA Baai
Herolds + Victoria Bay
Alentama
Groot Brak
Knysna/Sedgefield
HighThe District Municipal Area contains a large amount of coastal land with less than 5.5 m elevation.LowHomeowners
Municipalities
Insurance Companies.
Eden Coastal Management Plan.
Legal weak in enforcing SA14 ICMA
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased impacts on traditional and informal dwellingsYesFloods, fire, droughts (informal settlements across the southern cape).
There are no traditional dwellings but rather informal dwellings.
HighAbout 14.37% of households are informal and heavily impacted due to changes in the climate, and because of hazards such as fire and floods.LowBusinesses
Communities
Unions
Municipalities
National, provincial and local government
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased migration to urban and peri-urban areasYesGeorge, Bitou, Knysna and Mossel Bay are popular and favourable.HighThe youth migrate from the Eastern Cape and the elderly to the coastal towns of the district.LowImmigration from Cape Town to this District due to water shortages.
IDP - District
MERO
Census
Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster ManagementIncreased risk of wildfiresYesThe entire District
Knysna
An increase in invasive alien species in rural areas.
HighVeldfires have been experienced throughout the District heavily impacting on households and municipal infrastructure.
The risk of veld fires is high for most of the District Municipal Area, there are areas of extremely high veld fire risk in the south and low veld fire risk in many parts in the north and west of the District.
LowDisaster Management
Fire Departments
Municipalities
Working on Fire
WaterDecreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughtsYesDrought is the main cause of poor affluent and high salt concentrations.HighGreen Drop Scores:
George Local Municipality - 43.10%
the Mossel Bay Local Municipality - 40.30%
Knysna Local Municipality - 38.30%
Bitou Local Municipality - 49.40 %
Oudtshoorn Local Municipality - 33.80%
Hessequa Local Municipality - 30.10%
Kannaland Local Municipality scored - 25.10%
LowMunicipalities
DWA
BGCMA

The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability).   The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Socio-economic vulnerability per local municipality in Garden Route (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Environmental Vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Environmental vulnerability per local municipality in Garden Route (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Physical vulnerability per local municipality in Garden Route (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

Economic Vulnerability

Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.

Figure: Economic vulnerability per local municipality in Garden Route (Le Roux, van Huyssteen, et al. 2019)

References