Draft Climate Change Plan
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | Mossel Bay to Heidelberg and the Little Karoo, more extensive farming methods are practised such as livestock production (sheep, beef, goats, ostriches etc.) and game farming. Tick borne diseases such as malaria affect livestock in the District. | High | Livestock provides meat, wool, fresh milk, cheese, yogurt, processed milk and eggs for the District's at the commercial and subsistence level. Avian flu for poultry. | Low | There are interventions but they are insufficient. Farmers and labourers Eden District Municipality Climate Change Adaptation Plan Eden District Municipality Regional Economic Development Strategy |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems | Yes | There are vulnerable ecosystems within the District. | High | The following ecosystems within the District are categorised as critically endangered: Langkloof Shale Renosterveld Knysna Sand Fynbos Garden Route Shale Fynbos Cape Lowland Alluvial Vegetation Muscadel Riviere Cape Lowland Alluvial Vegetation Eastern Ruens Shale Renosterveld Runes Silcrete Renosterveld Garden Route Granite Fynbos Mossel Bay Shale Renosterveld Increasing temperatures and drought periods result in the decrease in species diversity. | Low | There is a lack of institutional support due to poor structuring. There is minimal implementation. Research and policy exists but threats from invasive plants are displacing threatened vegetation types. DEADP Care Nature Local Municipalities Eden Biodiversity Report Eden Biodiversity Action Plan Sanparks SANBI DEA FPD |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Increased impacts on environment due to land-use change | Yes | Tuin op die braak (Stilbaai) Lowland coastal Fynbos (George/M. Bay, Knysna and Bitou) Lowland wetlands (Tronehout Southern Cape) | High | Although biodiversity is protected through conservation areas in the District, there is a high rate of land-use change due to soil erosion, the spread of invasive alien species, population growth, the expansion of agricultural and urban areas, increased pollution, and poor waste management. Rowland coastal fynbos has been highly transformed in the last 10 years due to poor spatial development planning and increasing demand for coastal view/access. | Low | People responsible for protecting the environment are approving developments and the main causes for this are financial risks, politics and legal obligations. DEADP CapeNature Sanparks SANBI DEA FPD, Municipalities |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems | Yes | Stilbaai, Wilderness, Lakes, Goukou Systems, Knysna, and Keurbooms. | High | Most wetlands within the District are classified as either ‘moderately modified’ or ‘heavily to critically modified'. Ploughing/excavation of wetland during droughts. | Low | Hardened surfaces replacing wetlands reduce the ability to store stormwater runoff. DEADP CapeNature Sanparks SANBI DEA FPD Local Municipalities |
| Coastal and Marine | Loss of land due to sea level rise | Yes | Glentana Wilderness Groot Brak Knysna | High | The District Municipal Area contains a large amount of coastal land with less than 5.5 m elevation. | Low | Homeowners Local Municipalities Insurance Companies Eden Coastal Management Plan. CML's draft available October 2017. There's a need to exercise policy of retreat in SDF. |
| Coastal and Marine | Increased damage to property from sea level rise | Yes | Wilderness DANA Baai Herolds + Victoria Bay Alentama Groot Brak Knysna/Sedgefield | High | The District Municipal Area contains a large amount of coastal land with less than 5.5 m elevation. | Low | Homeowners Municipalities Insurance Companies. Eden Coastal Management Plan. Legal weak in enforcing SA14 ICMA |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings | Yes | Floods, fire, droughts (informal settlements across the southern cape). There are no traditional dwellings but rather informal dwellings. | High | About 14.37% of households are informal and heavily impacted due to changes in the climate, and because of hazards such as fire and floods. | Low | Businesses Communities Unions Municipalities National, provincial and local government |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased migration to urban and peri-urban areas | Yes | George, Bitou, Knysna and Mossel Bay are popular and favourable. | High | The youth migrate from the Eastern Cape and the elderly to the coastal towns of the district. | Low | Immigration from Cape Town to this District due to water shortages. IDP - District MERO Census |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased risk of wildfires | Yes | The entire District Knysna An increase in invasive alien species in rural areas. | High | Veldfires have been experienced throughout the District heavily impacting on households and municipal infrastructure. The risk of veld fires is high for most of the District Municipal Area, there are areas of extremely high veld fire risk in the south and low veld fire risk in many parts in the north and west of the District. | Low | Disaster Management Fire Departments Municipalities Working on Fire |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | Drought is the main cause of poor affluent and high salt concentrations. | High | Green Drop Scores: George Local Municipality - 43.10% the Mossel Bay Local Municipality - 40.30% Knysna Local Municipality - 38.30% Bitou Local Municipality - 49.40 % Oudtshoorn Local Municipality - 33.80% Hessequa Local Municipality - 30.10% Kannaland Local Municipality scored - 25.10% | Low | Municipalities DWA BGCMA |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.