Draft Climate Change Plan
File Name | Year | Size (MB) | Type | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Climate Change Response Framework | 2014 | 1,222 | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B98u4HJRN5rrWGIzcS1Uak1Gc3M" target="_blank">Download</a> | |
| West Coast District Municipality CC Background Indicators Presentation | 2018 | 12,980 | Power Point | <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ftsRZ0o3nN3wDe1BqJiQQi4F9rWe2KnFqKIXSdRcVOg/export/pptx" target="_blank">Download</a> |
| West Coast District Municipality CC Summary Report | 2018 | 9,798 | WORD | <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B3_QkunKNww0Z3RwQ3loMElFa1k&resourcekey=0-WkMOYFQBUY753eNPqobDMA&rtpof=true&sd=true" target="_blank">Download</a> |
Key Climate Hazards
Increasing temperatures
The figure below shows projected changes in annual average temperatures, highlighting increasing temperatures throughout the district for the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By 2050, the district is projected to be affected by higher annual average temperatures, which will adversely affect water and food security. Evaporation rates will also likely increase and agricultural outputs may reduce.
Increasing rainfall variability
The figure below shows projected shifts in annual average rainfall throughout the district between 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average rainfall amounts vary across the district. There is uncertainty regarding projected future rainfall.
Increasing storms and flooding events
The figure below shows projected changes in the annual average number of extreme rainfall days throughout the district over the period 2021-2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increases in the number of rainfall days are likely to result in an increase in intense storms, and flooding events across the district.
Changing Biomes
The current delineation of biomes is depicted in the figure below, with the predicted shift in biomes shown in the following figure based on a high-risk scenario. The biomes have varying sensitivities to the projected impacts of climate change which are further exacerbated by issues such as the fragmentation of natural areas and unsustainable water usage rates.
Climate Change Vulnerability
A climate change vulnerability assessment is a way of identifying and prioritising impacts from climate change. The IPCC defines vulnerability as:
"Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change"
Summary of Climate Change Response Plan
A vulnerability assessment lets you identify these adverse impacts of climate change that are most important to your area. The climate change vulnerability assessment process that is used in this toolkit identified the following indicators in the table below.
Theme | Indicator Title | Exposure | Exposure Comment | Sensitivity | Sensitivity Comment | Adaptive Capacity | Adaptive Capacity Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) production | Yes | Wheat in Swartland, Saldanha and Bergrivier. Oats, rye and barley are also produced within the District, mainly for livestock feed. | High | Wheat is one of the main crops within the West Coast District Municipality. Agricultural activities in the District contribute 30% to the local GDP. Job losses. | Low | There is a Bergrivier Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2014) and a Swartland Climate Change and Hazard Risk areas study. SmartAgri (DOA) Nabeel Ryland (PDMC) Risk Register DAFF Farmers Associations DEDAT Disaster Management Plans Risk Assessments Water Dependent DEA & DP/DEA (EIA) |
| Agriculture | Change in viticulture (grapes) production | Yes | Grapes (Table and Wine) are found in Swartland, Cederberg, Bergrivier, and Matzikama LM's. | High | In summer the Swartland LM is marked by green pockets of vineyards and produces full-bodied red wines and high quality, fortified wines. Agricultural activities in the District contribute 30% to the local GDP. Job losses. | Low | There is a Bergrivier Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2014) and a Swartland Climate Change and Hazard Risk areas study where grapes are currently grown within the District Municipality. Smart Agri (DOA) Nabeel Ryland (PDMC) Risk Register DAFF Farmers Associations DEDAT Water Dependent Removing vineyards to plant other crops such as Canola. |
| Agriculture | Change in fruit production | Yes | Bergrivier - deciduous (Piketberg) Porterville - deciduous Cederberg Municipality - Citrus | High | Climate change and water availability threaten the productivity of priority fruit within the District. The increase in drought cases directly impacts on production costs. Job losses. | Low | Smart Agri (DOA) Nabeel Ryland (PDMC) Risk Register DAFF Farmers Associations Local and District Municipalities DEDAT |
| Agriculture | Increased risks to livestock | Yes | The whole District is prone to hazards (hydrological + agricultural drought) Livestock farming is practised, cattle for dairy and meat and poultry. | High | Large parts of the West Coast District Municipal Area have experienced drought since 2015/2016, this poses a threat to livestock production. | Low | Smart Agri (DOA) Nabeel Ryland (PDMC) Risk Register DAFF Farmers Association. DEDAT Local and District Municipalities |
| Biodiversity and Environment | Loss of Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems | Yes | Bergrivier, Verlorenvlei, Olifants as well as smaller rivers and estuary systems. Decreasing water availability because of drought. Decreasing ecological flows in rivers. Decreasing variety and number of birds / tourism / birding. Increase in reeds, growing in areas normally under water. Increase in salinity levels. | High | The wetlands in the District are classified either as ‘heavily or critically modified’. Increasing drought incidences have impacted on the quality of river and wetland ecosystems. | Low | Estuary Management Plans Coastal Management Plans DEA - Oceans and Coasts CapeNature DWAS DEADP R&R - LMs |
| Coastal and Marine | Loss of land due to sea level rise | Yes | Erosion - Yzerfontein and Laaiplek. Saldanha, Langebaan. 16 mile beach. Strandfontein - coastal area. | High | The District Municipal Area contains the third largest area of coastal land with an elevation less than 5.5 m. | Low | Clarity on Coastal Implementation required. DEADP District Coastal Management Plans Coastal Management Lines DEA (Ocean and Coast) |
| Coastal and Marine | Increased damage to property from sea level rise | Yes | Erosion (in Yzerfontein, Laaiplek, Langebaan, Saldanha, and Strandfontein/Matzikama). Damage to municipal infrastructure, houses, and private property. | High | The District Municipal Area contains the third largest area of coastal land with less than a 5.5 m elevation in South Africa which directly impact on coastal property in the event of sea level rising. | Low | Awareness needed Disaster Management Plans Risk Assessments Disaster Management Document Municipal Coastal Committee to oversee coastal management in the District. West Coast District Municipal Council approved Coastal Management Programme. Limited funding for implementing R&R. |
| Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Disaster Management | Increased risk of wildfires | Yes | Strong winds Heat waves Less water Fuel loads | High | More than half of the district’s land area is exposed to high veld fire risk. | Low | Department of Agriculture Disaster Management Plan Department of Human Settlements Department of Environmental Affairs |
| Water | Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts | Yes | There has been severe droughts in the District. | High | 2013 statistics Bergrivier Local Municipality- 44.21 % Cederberg Local Municipality- 35.5 % Matzikama Local Municipality- 58.12 % Saldanha Local Municipality - 80.52 % Swartland Local Municipality - 72.38 % | Low | DWS WCDM DoA DEA & DEA & DP Local Municipalities DMR DEDAT Impact of mining on water resources. Green drop scores need to be updated. |
| Water | Less water available for irrigation and drinking | Yes | Severe drought impacts include reduced water for irrigation and drinking purposes. | High | Groundwater supplies in the District Municipal Area are steadily decreasing. | Low | DWS WCDM DEA & DP Local Municipalities Water monitoring committee District demand-side management measures Feasibility studies on alternative water sources are already being conducted. Feasibility for use of groundwater in progress. Time taken to receive WULA S30A is a challenge. |
The CSIR Greenbook has also developed and refined a vulnerability assessment framework by collating relevant data into composite vulnerability indicators. Four local municipality level vulnerability indices were computed and are shown spatially below.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Social inequalities are the factors that affect the susceptibility and coping mechanisms of communities and households. Indicators for social vulnerability attempt to consider the sensitivity, response and recovery from the impacts of natural hazards. The CSIR Green Book has developed a socio-economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the Socio-Economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Environmental Vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability describes the vulnerability and risk to the natural environment and the impacts on the ecological infrastructure of which surrounding settlements are dependent. The environmental risk of an area includes ecosystems, habitats, physical and biological processes (reproduction, diversity, energy flows, etc). The CSIR Green Book has developed an Environmental Vulnerability Index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the environmental vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Physical Vulnerability
Physical vulnerability describes the physical fabric and connectedness of settlements (buildings and infrastructure) and focuses mainly on the conditions that exist before a hazard occurs and the expected level of resulting loss. The CSIR Green Book has developed a physical vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the physical vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability describes the potential risks posed by hazards on economic assets and processes. Potential hazards can include job losses, increased poverty and interruptions in business activities. The CSIR Green Book has developed an economic vulnerability index that is measured on a scale from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). The map below shows the economic vulnerability score of each municipality in the district visually.
References
- CSIR. 2019. ‘Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change’. Green Book | Adapting South African Settlements to Climate Change. 2019. www.greenbook.co.za.
- Le Roux, A, E van Huyssteen, K Arnold, and C Ludick. 2019. ‘The Vulnerabilities of South Africa’s Settlements’. Green Book. 2019. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8.
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SANParks. 2011a. ‘CCAB - Current Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/484
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SANParks. 2011b. ‘CCAB - High Risk Scenarios - Biome Delineations 2011 [Vector Geospatial Dataset]’. Available from the Biodiversity GIS website. http://bgis.sanbi.org/SpatialDataset/Detail/486.